Temperature in Chicago Metro Area on Oct 19, 2026 at 6am EDT?
K 0 contracts
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10
Temperature in Chicago Metro Area on Oct 19, 2026 at 6am EDT?
K 0 contracts
1
10
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 0 contracts
Reported volume · provider units
10
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
About This Event
On Oct 19, 2026 at 6am EDT If the temperature recorded at Chicago Metro Area for Oct 19, 2026 at 6 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The official final value for this market is determined strictly by the temperature reported by Synoptic Data, calculated in accordance with the Kalshi Weather Index Methodology. Alternative sources—such as NWS Climatological Reports or Google Weather—may serve as references, but are not authoritative and will not be used for market resolution.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The supplied Kalshi event asks whether the temperature recorded for the Chicago Metro Area at 6 AM EDT on October 19, 2026 will be above a stated threshold. The excerpt says the official value is "determined strictly by the temperature reported by Synoptic Data" [1]. It also states that alternative sources, such as "NWS Climatological Reports or Google Weather," are "not authoritative and will not be used for market resolution" [1].
Each market in the sample uses a different threshold, from 35.99° to 44.99°. The excerpt does not state the temperature unit. Each market lists an end date of 2026-10-26T10:00:00.000Z [1]. The event's status line, however, says the "Listed end time: not supplied" [1]. This conflict should be checked with the provider before relying on either value. A listed end time is not a resolution, and the supplied evidence does not show a resolution.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-19T09:13:02.774Z [1]. These are past snapshots, not live quotes or executable prices. The 6 AM EDT measurement time corresponds to 10:00 UTC, which falls after the observation time.
Yes prices were 0.895 at 35.99° and 0.855 at both 36.99° and 37.99°. The 38.99°, 39.99°, and 40.99° markets were each at 0.505. The 43.99° market was at 0.495, and the 44.99° market was at 0.235. The 41.99° and 42.99° markets were each at 0 [1].
The ordering is not a smooth ladder. The 41.99° market is priced below the 43.99° market. Each contract should be read on its own threshold rather than as a continuous forecast curve. The prices do not show why they differ, and the evidence contains no volume or trader information that would indicate depth or agreement.
The sample includes all 10 saved markets for this single event, with partialSample set to false [1]. The provider notes that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1].
What remains uncertain
The supplied evidence includes one source only. It does not establish the temperature unit, the correct listed close time, the reason for the price pattern, or the eventual Synoptic Data reading. No comparison with other platforms is made, because differing contract wording would make a direct comparison misleading.
References
- Kalshi: Temperature in Chicago Metro Area on Oct 19, 2026 at 6am EDT?. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Kalshi event asking about the temperature in the Chicago Metro Area at 6am EDT on October 19, 2026. The event title is "Temperature in Chicago Metro Area on Oct 19, 2026 at 6am EDT?" [1]. Each market in the event asks whether the recorded temperature will be above a stated threshold. The saved markets use thresholds between 35.99 and 44.99 degrees [1]. The contract resolves to Yes if the temperature recorded for the Chicago Metro Area at 6 AM EDT on October 19, 2026, as reported by Synoptic Data, is above the threshold in the market. The official final value is set strictly by the Synoptic Data report, calculated under the Kalshi Weather Index Methodology [1]. The rules say that other sources, such as NWS Climatological Reports or Google Weather, may serve as references but are not authoritative and will not be used for resolution [1]. A contract's observed value therefore depends on one named data provider, not on whichever weather app a trader happens to check. The event's listed end date is October 26, 2026, and the saved market records show an active status [1]. That date is a listed contract field, not an announced event or publication date. The rules tie the outcome to the 6 AM EDT reading on October 19, so the listed end date should not be read as the moment the temperature is measured.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single observed temperature value at a specific local time on a specific date. Each threshold market asks whether that value will exceed a particular number [1]. Because the outcome is fixed by one named provider and one methodology, the rules define the measurement the contract tracks more precisely than a general forecast does [1]. Prices in the saved snapshot reflect how the market was trading at the observation time and are not verified probabilities of the temperature outcome or executable quotes.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Which data source decides how this contract resolves?
The official final value is determined strictly by the temperature reported by Synoptic Data, calculated in accordance with the Kalshi Weather Index Methodology [1].
Can NWS or Google Weather readings be used to settle these markets?
The rules say that NWS Climatological Reports or Google Weather may serve as references, but they are not authoritative and will not be used for market resolution [1].
What time does the contract measure?
The contract refers to the temperature at 6 AM EDT on October 19, 2026 [1]. The listed end date of October 26, 2026 is a separate contract field and does not change the measurement time [1].
Does a higher price on a threshold market mean the temperature is more likely to exceed that threshold?
Not necessarily. The saved prices are snapshots from a particular observation time. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and differences between contracts do not by themselves indicate an opportunity.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
