Temperature in New York City on Oct 19, 2026 at 6am EDT?
K 0 contracts
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Temperature in New York City on Oct 19, 2026 at 6am EDT?
K 0 contracts
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10
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 0 contracts
Reported volume · provider units
10
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
About This Event
On Oct 19, 2026 at 6am EDT If the temperature recorded at New York City for Oct 19, 2026 at 6 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The official final value for this market is determined strictly by the temperature reported by Synoptic Data, calculated in accordance with the Kalshi Weather Index Methodology. Alternative sources—such as NWS Climatological Reports or Google Weather—may serve as references, but are not authoritative and will not be used for market resolution.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The markets come from one Kalshi event, "Temperature in New York City on Oct 19, 2026 at 6am EDT?" Each contract asks whether the temperature at New York City at 6 AM EDT on October 19, 2026 will be above a specific threshold. The thresholds range from 33.99 to 42.99, and each market's title names its own threshold. The rules say the result will be "determined strictly by the temperature reported by Synoptic Data, calculated in accordance with the Kalshi Weather Index Methodology." They also state that alternative sources, including "NWS Climatological Reports or Google Weather," "are not authoritative and will not be used for market resolution" [1]. Each contract is therefore a separate question about a different threshold, and the rules do not define how a tie at a threshold is handled beyond the stated "above X" wording.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 09:00 UTC on October 19, 2026, and the record was retrieved at 09:22 UTC the same day. Both times fall before the 6 AM EDT reading named in the title. The snapshot covers all 10 saved markets for this event, and the sample is not partial. Prices range from 0 to 0.875 for "Yes." Two contracts, at 39.99 and 40.99, show Yes at 0 and No at 1. The 35.99 contract shows Yes at 0.875, the 36.99 contract shows 0.785, and most of the 33.99 to 38.99 contracts sit near 0.51 or 0.49. The 41.99 and 42.99 contracts sit near 0.495 and 0.505. The prices do not fall in a simple steady order across thresholds, and the evidence does not explain why.
These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The volume and trader counts are not in the evidence, so the snapshot says nothing about how many people hold each view or how deep the market is. Because the markets are on one provider and one event, no comparison with other platforms or contracts is supported.
What remains uncertain
The source excerpt says "Listed end time: not supplied," yet each market record carries an endDate of October 26, 2026 at 10:00 UTC. That date is a field in the provider data, not a stated close for the weather reading, and the evidence does not reconcile the two. The measurement time in the title is 6 AM EDT on October 19. Readers should not treat the endDate as the resolution date without checking the provider's rules. The evidence also does not show the final reading, the actual resolution, or any change in status after the snapshot.
References
- Kalshi: Temperature in New York City on Oct 19, 2026 at 6am EDT?. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a weather contract listed on Kalshi that asks whether the temperature in New York City, recorded at 6 AM EDT on October 19, 2026, will be above a stated threshold. Under the contract rules, the market resolves to Yes if the recorded temperature for that time is above the threshold in the market title [1]. The official final value is set by the temperature reported by Synoptic Data, calculated under the Kalshi Weather Index Methodology [1]. The contract rules also state that other sources, such as NWS Climatological Reports or Google Weather, may serve as references but are not authoritative and will not be used for resolution [1]. The rules do not state the temperature unit in the market titles, so this entry does not assume one. The event contains a set of separate markets, each with its own threshold. The saved event includes ten markets with thresholds ranging from 33.99 to 42.99 in the titles, and each market shares the same event date and listed end date of October 26, 2026 at 10:00 UTC [1]. That end date is a contract date recorded in the provider data. It is not an announced event date, and the rules say the outcome depends on the 6 AM EDT reading on October 19, not on the end date itself [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether a single recorded temperature reading, taken at 6 AM EDT on October 19, 2026 in New York City, is above a chosen threshold [1]. Because each threshold is a separate yes or no market, the set shows how the price of a Yes outcome changes across different cutoffs. In the saved snapshot, the lower thresholds had higher Yes prices and the highest thresholds had Yes prices of 0 [1]. Those prices reflect what the saved provider data showed at one moment. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and the saved volume data does not indicate liquidity or the number of traders.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether a market resolves to Yes?
A market resolves to Yes if the temperature recorded for New York City at 6 AM EDT on October 19, 2026, as reported by Synoptic Data, is above the threshold in that market's title [1].
Can a weather service's report be used instead?
The contract rules say that alternative sources such as NWS Climatological Reports or Google Weather may serve as references but are not authoritative and will not be used for market resolution [1].
Does the listed end date mean the event happens on that date?
No. The listed end date of October 26, 2026 at 10:00 UTC is a contract date in the provider data [1]. The outcome depends on the reading taken at 6 AM EDT on October 19, 2026 [1].
Why do the markets have different prices?
Each market uses a different threshold, so each asks a separate yes or no question about the same recorded reading [1]. The prices shown are snapshots from the saved data and should not be treated as verified probabilities or executable quotes.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
