Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETOther

Melbourne's wettest month of 2026?

Name: Melbourne's wettest month of 2026?
End: 2027-01-09T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$10.32K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Melbourne's wettest month of 2026?

Vol

$10.32K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $10.32K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $10.32K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

Will October be Melbourne's wettest month of 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will October be Melbourne's wettest month of 2026?	Poly	54%
Will November be Melbourne's wettest month of 2026?	Poly	23%
Will December be Melbourne's wettest month of 2026?	Poly	9%
Will August be Melbourne's wettest month of 2026?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

54%

Top Probability

$10.32K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the calendar month of 2026 with the highest total rainfall at Melbourne (Olympic Park), Bureau of Meteorology station number 086338. Monthly rainfall is the total of all daily rainfall observations for that month, each nominally recorded at 9 am local time for the preceding 24 hours, as published in the Bureau of Meteorology's Monthly rainfall table for station 086338. Rainfall is reported in millimetres to 1 decimal place, and that is the level of precisio

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Melbourne's wettest month of 2026?
**Category:** Other | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 9, 2027 (90 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the calendar month of 2026 with the highest total rainfall at Melbourne (Olympic Park), Bureau of Meteorology station number 086338.

Monthly rainfall is the total of all daily rainfall observations for that month, each nominally recorded at 9 am local time for the preceding 24 hours, as published in the Bureau of Meteorology's Monthly rainfall table for station 086338. Rainfall is reported in millimetres to 1 decimal place, and that is the level of precisio

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the calendar month of 2026 with the highest total rainfall at Melbourne (Olympic Park), Bureau of Meteorology station number 086338.

Monthly rainfall is the total of all daily rainfall observations for that month, each nominally recorded at 9 am local time for "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $10.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.5K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 4.09)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will August be Melbourne's wettest month of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 9, 2027): Vol $592
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will October be Melbourne's wettest month of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 9, 2027): Vol $4.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 54.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 46.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will November be Melbourne's wettest month of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 9, 2027): Vol $3.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will December be Melbourne's wettest month of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 9, 2027): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.7% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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