GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

State of the economy at the end of 2026

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State of the economy at the end of 2026

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Kalshi

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4 markets tracked

State of the economy at the end of 2026? (Soft landing)

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Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
State of the economy at the end of 2026? (Soft landing)	Kalshi	40%
State of the economy at the end of 2026? (Overheating)	Kalshi	37%
State of the economy at the end of 2026? (Stagflation)	Kalshi	17%
State of the economy at the end of 2026? (Slack / disinflation)	Kalshi	4%

AI Analysis

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40%

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About This Event

In Dec 2026 In Dec 2026 The market closes at 8:25 AM on the day of the expected release of the inflation data for Dec 2026.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** State of the economy at the end of 2026
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In Dec 2026

In Dec 2026 The market closes at 8:25 AM on the day of the expected release of the inflation data for Dec 2026.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is At least 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is at least 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market closes at 8:25 AM on the day of the expected release of the inflation dat"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. State of the economy at the end of 2026? (Stagflation)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 14, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 17.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. State of the economy at the end of 2026? (Soft landing)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 14, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 39.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.2% (0.0%)]

### 3. State of the economy at the end of 2026? (Slack / disinflation)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 14, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. State of the economy at the end of 2026? (Overheating)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 14, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 36.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

State of the economy at the end of 2026

In Dec 2026 In Dec 2026 The market closes at 8:25 AM on the day of the expected release of the inflation data for Dec 2026.

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KALSHI

State of the economy at the end of 2026? (Soft landing)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 39.8¢No 60.2¢

KALSHIEconomics

State of the economy at the end of 2026? (Soft landing)

If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is Below 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is below 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market closes at 8:25 AM on the day of the expected release of the inflation data for

KALSHI

State of the economy at the end of 2026? (Overheating)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 36.5¢No 63.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

State of the economy at the end of 2026? (Overheating)

If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is Below 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is at least 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market closes at 8:25 AM on the day of the expected release of the inflation data f

KALSHI

State of the economy at the end of 2026? (Stagflation)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 17.4¢No 82.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

State of the economy at the end of 2026? (Stagflation)

If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is At least 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is at least 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market closes at 8:25 AM on the day of the expected release of the inflation dat

KALSHI

State of the economy at the end of 2026? (Slack / disinflation)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.0¢No 96.0¢

KALSHISports

State of the economy at the end of 2026? (Slack / disinflation)

If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is At least 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is below 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market closes at 8:25 AM on the day of the expected release of the inflation data f

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/ov_5_1" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="State of the economy at the end of 2026"></iframe>

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State of the economy at the end of 2026

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State of the economy at the end of 2026? (Soft landing)

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Educational Context

Events (1)

State of the economy at the end of 2026

Markets (4)

State of the economy at the end of 2026? (Soft landing)

State of the economy at the end of 2026? (Soft landing)

State of the economy at the end of 2026? (Overheating)

State of the economy at the end of 2026? (Overheating)

State of the economy at the end of 2026? (Stagflation)

State of the economy at the end of 2026? (Stagflation)

State of the economy at the end of 2026? (Slack / disinflation)

State of the economy at the end of 2026? (Slack / disinflation)

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

State of the economy at the end of 2026? (Soft landing)

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

State of the economy at the end of 2026

State of the economy at the end of 2026? (Soft landing)

State of the economy at the end of 2026? (Soft landing)

State of the economy at the end of 2026? (Overheating)

State of the economy at the end of 2026? (Overheating)

State of the economy at the end of 2026? (Stagflation)

State of the economy at the end of 2026? (Stagflation)

State of the economy at the end of 2026? (Slack / disinflation)

State of the economy at the end of 2026? (Slack / disinflation)

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