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Events
GroupPOLYMARKET

Trump declares a national emergency by...?

Trump declares a national emergency by...?
Vol

PM $470.53

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Events

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Markets

2

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is November 30 at 34%.

Polymarket

  1. November 3034%
  2. December 3130.5%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $470.53

Reported volume · provider units

2

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency pursuant to the National Emergencies Act between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying declaration must include formal language stating that a national emergency exists and must be issued under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.). Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, announcements of an intention to declare a national emergency, executive orders that do not formally declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act, or other actions that do not declare a national emergency will not qualify. Renewals, continuations, or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify. Amendments to or expansions of previously existing national emergencies will also not qualify unless they formally declare a new national emergency. The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official White House publications; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketPolitics
Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?

Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?

PM $302.2K
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?Yes 21.5%
1 mktNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Will Trump declare a national emergency?

Will Trump declare a national emergency?

K 3.7K contracts
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency before Apr 1, 2027?Yes 48%
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency before Jan 1, 2027?Yes 36.5%
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency before Dec 1, 2026?Yes 19%
+1 moreNext deadline Nov 8, 2026 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Will Trump declare an election emergency?

Will Trump declare an election emergency?

K 349.2K contracts
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Jan 1, 2027?Yes 26.5%
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Nov 4, 2026?Yes 6.9%
2 mktsNext deadline Nov 11, 2026 UTC
PolymarketKalshiPolitics
Which bills will become law in 2026?

Which bills will become law in 2026?

PM $198.7K · K 668.9K contracts

Will Export-control chip security become law this year?

Kalshi: Will legislation that requires location-verification security mechanisms on certain advanced chips before export become law before Jan 1, 2027?

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 42%Rules differK Yes 51%

Will Film/TV production expensing become law this year?

Kalshi: Will a federal film or TV production tax credit become law before Jan 1, 2027?

Related contracts

PM Yes 5.9%Rules differK Yes 28.5%

Will Data center utility cost protection become law this year?

Kalshi: Will legislation that prohibits data center power usage from increasing consumers' electric utility bills become law before Jan 1, 2027?

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 17%Rules differK Yes 17%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

15 saved comparisonsNext deadline Dec 31, 2026 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Midterms: Democratic share of 2024 Trump voters?

Midterms: Democratic share of 2024 Trump voters?

K 221.47 contracts
Will Democrats receive above 2% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?Yes 93.5%
Will Democrats receive above 3% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?Yes 87%
Will Democrats receive above 4% of the vote among 2024 Trump voters in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?Yes 81%
+7 moreNext deadline Feb 6, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Midterms: Trump approval in the exit poll?

Midterms: Trump approval in the exit poll?

K 883.73 contracts
Will above 30% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?Yes 87.5%
Will above 32% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?Yes 76%
Will above 34% of voters approve of Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?Yes 65.5%
+6 moreNext deadline Feb 6, 2027 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

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Same-question pairs

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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

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