GroupPOLYMARKETKALSHICross-Platform

Event GroupPOLYMARKETKALSHICross-Platform6 EventsCrypto

Who will launch a token this year?

Name: Who will launch a token this year?
End: 2027-01-01T05:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$8.37M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Who will launch a token this year?

Vol

$8.37M

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $8.37M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

10.2%avg

max 18.1%

Arbitrage

of 5 cross-platform

Calculate

Volume DistributionTotal: $8.37M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

23 markets tracked

Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026?

No data available

Cross-Platform Comparison(5)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026?	48%	49%	1%
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?ARB	22%	10%	12%
Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026?ARB	25%	7%	18%
Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026ARB	17%	7%	10%
Will Unit launch a token by December 31, 2026?ARB	14%	4%	11%

Single-Platform Markets(18)

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

65%

Top Probability

$8.37M

Volume

Markets

15.5%

Price Gap

About This Event

Before Jan 1, 2027 If X launches a token after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. X token launch requires ALL of the following: a fungible token deployed on a blockchain network, officially announced by the project as their token, transferability between wallet addresses, real economic value, not testnet, a liquidity pool with real value, and distribution through public sale, private sale, airdrop, liquidity provision, or exchange listing. This includes ICOs, TGEs

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, July 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Abstract launch a token by ___?
**Category:** Crypto | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 1, 2027 (169 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abstract officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Abstract, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Rabby launches a token after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A token launch requires ALL of the following: a fungible token deployed on a blockchain network, officially announced by the project as their token, transferability between wallet addre"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.40M
* **Total Liquidity:** $80.8K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 17.36)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (14 mkts) vs Kalshi (14 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Rabby launch a token before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 56.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 44.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Arc launch a token before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 46.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Exponent launch a token before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Phantom launch a token before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Tempo launch a token before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Fomo launch a token before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 10, 2026): Vol $336.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 10.0% spread between platforms.

### 8. Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 10, 2026): Vol $630.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 21.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 11.5% spread between platforms.

### 9. Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $59.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 24.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.4% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 18.1% spread between platforms.

### 10. Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $234.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 48.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.0% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Unit launch a token by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 10, 2026): Vol $8.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 14.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.0% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 10.5% spread between platforms.

### 12. Will Abstract launch a token by September 30, 2026
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $204
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Abstract launch a token by March 31, 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $2
  DATA: [Yes: 30.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Abstract launch a token by June 30, 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 1, 2027): Vol $30
  DATA: [Yes: 39.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Abstract launch a token by September 30, 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will CME Group launch a token before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will OpenSea launch a token before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 23.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will MetaMask launch a token before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 14.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.0% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Unit launch a token by December 31, 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $15.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 55.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 45.0% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 1, 2027): Vol $7.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 52.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 47.5% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $25.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 65.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 35.0% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $80.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Rules

Different

Timing

Different

POLYMARKETCrypto

Will Abstract launch a token by ___?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abstract officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Abstract, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Volume$503.08K

Markets6

KALSHICrypto

Who will launch a token this year?

Volume$0.00

Markets14

23 of 23

Sort:

POLYMARKET

Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 65.0¢No 35.0¢

POLYMARKETCrypto

Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Base officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only an official token launched by Base will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token mu

KALSHI

Will Rabby launch a token before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 56.0¢No 44.0¢

KALSHICrypto

Will Rabby launch a token before Jan 1, 2027?

If Rabby launches a token after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A token launch requires ALL of the following: a fungible token deployed on a blockchain network, officially announced by the project as their token, transferability between wallet addre

POLYMARKET

Will Unit launch a token by December 31, 2027?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 55.0¢No 45.0¢

POLYMARKETCrypto

Will Unit launch a token by December 31, 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Unit (https://hyperunit.xyz/) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qua

POLYMARKET

Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 52.5¢No 47.5¢

POLYMARKETCrypto

Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027?

POLYMARKET

Will Abstract launch a token by September 30, 2027?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 49.5¢No 50.5¢

POLYMARKETCrypto

Will Abstract launch a token by September 30, 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abstract officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only an official token launched by Abstract will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The

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Next Market Closes

168d 16h remaining

Jan 01, 2027 5:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

25¢

Polymarket

18¢

Kalshi

18¢ price gap

Arbitrage Opps

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