GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsPolitics

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Name: Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
End: 2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$8.46M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Vol

$8.46M

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $8.46M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

1.0%avg

max 3.0%

Arbitrage

of 4 cross-platform

Calculate

Volume DistributionTotal: $8.46M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

No data available

Cross-Platform Comparison(4)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	44%	44%	0%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	41%	40%	1%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseARB	14%	18%	3%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	2%	2%	0%

Single-Platform Markets(1)

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

44%

Top Probability

$8.46M

Volume

Markets

5.4%

Price Gap

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections. A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats. A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that pa

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, July 14, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** 2026 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** For Feb 2027

If ALL of the following occur on Feb 1, 2027: X then the market resolves to Yes. This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: House Control uses CONTROL, Senate Control uses CONTROL. This market will close and expire early if any component becomes

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections.

A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.

A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $8.46M
* **Total Liquidity:** $1.02M
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 8.28)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (5 mkts) vs Kalshi (4 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $2.15M
  DATA: [Yes: 43.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 43.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $1.23M
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.3% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.3% (0.0%)]

### 3. 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $1.58M
  DATA: [Yes: 40.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 39.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $1.89M
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 3.0% spread between platforms.

### 5. 2026 Balance of Power: Other
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $1.62M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Rules

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Timing

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KALSHIPolitics

2026 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?

For Feb 2027 If ALL of the following occur on Feb 1, 2027: X then the market resolves to Yes. This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: House Control uses CONTROL, Senate Control uses CONTROL. This market will close and expire early if any component becomes

Volume$0.00

Markets4

POLYMARKETPolitics

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Volume$8.46M

Markets5

5 of 5

Sort:

POLYMARKETKALSHI

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average43.5%

Polymarket

43.5%

Kalshi

43.5%

Difference:0.0%

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 43.5¢No 56.5¢

KKalshi

Yes 43.5¢No 56.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027?

If ALL of the following occur on Feb 1, 2027: House Control: Democratic, Senate Control: Democratic, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes

POLYMARKETKALSHI

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average40.0%

Polymarket+1.0%

40.5%

Kalshi

39.5%

Difference:1.0%

Polymarket higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 40.5¢No 59.5¢

KKalshi

Yes 39.5¢No 60.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Republican for Feb 2027?

If ALL of the following occur on Feb 1, 2027: House Control: Democratic, Senate Control: Republican, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes

Arbitrage Opportunity: 3.0% difference

POLYMARKETKALSHI

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average16.0%

Polymarket

14.5%

Kalshi+3.0%

17.5%

Difference:3.0% Arbitrage!

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 14.5¢No 85.5¢

KKalshi

Yes 17.5¢No 82.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

Will House Control be Republican AND Senate Control be Republican for Feb 2027?

If ALL of the following occur on Feb 1, 2027: House Control: Republican, Senate Control: Republican, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes

POLYMARKETKALSHI

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average1.8%

Polymarket

1.8%

Kalshi

1.8%

Difference:0.0%

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 1.8¢No 98.3¢

KKalshi

Yes 1.8¢No 98.3¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House

Will House Control be Republican AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027?

If ALL of the following occur on Feb 1, 2027: House Control: Republican, Senate Control: Democratic, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes

POLYMARKET

2026 Balance of Power: Other

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 0.7¢No 99.4¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

2026 Balance of Power: Other

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Next Market Closes

111d 5h remaining

Nov 03, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

25¢

Polymarket

26¢

Kalshi

3¢ price gap

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/pH1BRu" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms"></iframe>

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Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

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2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Rules & Resolution

Events (2)

2026 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Markets (4)

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027?

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Republican for Feb 2027?

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

Will House Control be Republican AND Senate Control be Republican for Feb 2027?

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House

Will House Control be Republican AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027?

2026 Balance of Power: Other

2026 Balance of Power: Other

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2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Rules & Resolution

2026 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027?

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Republican for Feb 2027?

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

Will House Control be Republican AND Senate Control be Republican for Feb 2027?

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House

Will House Control be Republican AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027?

2026 Balance of Power: Other

2026 Balance of Power: Other

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