GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Nevada?

Name: How many House seats will the Democrats win in Nevada?
End: 2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$11.14K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Nevada?

Vol

$11.14K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $11.14K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $11.14K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will Democrats win exactly 3 House seats in Nevada in the 2026 midterm elections?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Democrats win exactly 3 House seats in Nevada in the 2026 midterm elections?	Poly	75%
Will Democrats win exactly 4 House seats in Nevada in the 2026 midterm elections?	Poly	19%
Will Democrats win exactly 2 House seats in Nevada in the 2026 midterm elections?	Poly	5%
Will Democrats win exactly 1 House seats in Nevada in the 2026 midterm elections?	Poly	1%
Will Democrats win exactly 0 House seats in Nevada in the 2026 midterm elections?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

75%

Top Probability

$11.14K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Nevada in the 2026 United States midterm election. All Nevada US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concur

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many House seats will the Democrats win in Nevada?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 3, 2026 (59 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Nevada in the 2026 United States midterm election.

All Nevada US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concur

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Nevada in the 2026 United States midterm election.

All Nevada US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting m"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $11.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $36.2K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.31)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Democrats win exactly 0 House seats in Nevada in the 2026 midterm elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $962
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Democrats win exactly 1 House seats in Nevada in the 2026 midterm elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Democrats win exactly 2 House seats in Nevada in the 2026 midterm elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.3% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Democrats win exactly 3 House seats in Nevada in the 2026 midterm elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $5.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 75.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 25.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Democrats win exactly 4 House seats in Nevada in the 2026 midterm elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics