Name: Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?
End: 2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z

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Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...? | PredictPedia

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3 markets tracked

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?	Poly	18%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025?	Poly	7%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?	Poly	2%

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 31, 2026 (75 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between September 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between September 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto contr"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $9.75M
* **Total Liquidity:** $189.3K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 51.47)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2025): Vol $2.12M
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $7.52M
  DATA: [Yes: 2.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.7% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $107.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

74d 18h remaining

Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM

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Average Yes Price

9¢

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Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?

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Events (1)

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

Markets (3)

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025?

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025?

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?

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Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?

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Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025?

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025?

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?

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