Market snapshot: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform4 EventsEconomics

Bank of Japan rate decision in December

Reported volume

PM $264.4K · K 34.7K contracts

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Bank of Japan rate decision in December

Vol

PM $264.4K · K 34.7K contracts

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Provider overview

polymarket

$264.4K

Reported lifetime volume

kalshi

34.7K contracts

Reported lifetime volume

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Bank of Japan rate decision in December

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Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff

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Related contracts: 13 pairs

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Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 3 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Bank of Japan rate decision in December". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-12-25T03:30:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Bank of Japan Decision in October?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 5 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Bank of Japan rate decision in December". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-12-25T03:30:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Bank of Japan Decision in December?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-12-18T00:00:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 5 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Bank of Japan rate decision in October". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-06T02:30:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Bank of Japan Decision in October?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $264.4K · K 34.7K contracts

Reported volume · provider units

Saved contracts

Reviewed equivalent pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC

About This Event

Dec 17, 2026 meeting If the Bank of Japan takes the action X more than 25bps at December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive, e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes. This market will close and expire early if the central bank announces its decision.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Event: Bank of Japan rate decision in December
Source snapshot: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported event volume (provider units): PM $264.4K · K 34.7K contracts
Coverage: 20 of 20 saved contracts included.
Prices are saved observations, not executable quotes. Listed close dates do not promise settlement or payout time.

Contract: Will the Bank of Japan Cut 25bps at the December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26DEC17-C25; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcbdecisionjapan-26dec17
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 25, 2026, 3:30 AM UTC
Reported volume: 93.8 contracts
Outcome Yes: 1.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 98.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Bank of Japan takes the action of Cut 25bps at December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes). Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the central bank announces its decision.

Contract: Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3251601; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-japan-decreases-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-october-2026-meeting-20260731151539216
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 30, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Reported volume: $18.3K
Outcome Yes: <0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: >99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.

If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Contract: Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-4713373; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-japan-decreases-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-december-2026-meeting-20260918
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Reported volume: $1.4K
Outcome Yes: 0.7%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.4%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, scheduled for December 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.

If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.

If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will

Contract: Will the Bank of Japan Cut 25bps at the October 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26OCT29-C25; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcbdecisionjapan-26oct29
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 6, 2026, 2:30 AM UTC
Reported volume: 966.7 contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Bank of Japan takes the action of Cut 25bps at October 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes). Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the central bank announces its decision.

Contract: Will the Bank of Japan Hike 25bps at the December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26DEC17-H25; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcbdecisionjapan-26dec17
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 25, 2026, 3:30 AM UTC
Reported volume: 2.6K contracts
Outcome Yes: 71.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 28.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Bank of Japan takes the action of Hike 25bps at December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes). Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the central bank announces its decision.

Contract: Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3251603; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-japan-increases-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-october-2026-meeting-20260731151539218
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 30, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Reported volume: $69.9K
Outcome Yes: 3.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 97.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.

If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Contract: Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-4713375; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-japan-increases-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-december-2026-meeting-20260918
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Reported volume: $7.7K
Outcome Yes: 72.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 28.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, scheduled for December 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.

If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.

If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will

Contract: Will the Bank of Japan Hike 25bps at the October 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26OCT29-H25; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcbdecisionjapan-26oct29
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 6, 2026, 2:30 AM UTC
Reported volume: 8.6K contracts
Outcome Yes: 4.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 95.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Bank of Japan takes the action of Hike 25bps at October 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes). Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the central bank announces its decision.

Contract: Will the Bank of Japan Maintain current rate at the December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26DEC17-HOLD; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcbdecisionjapan-26dec17
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 25, 2026, 3:30 AM UTC
Reported volume: 213.88 contracts
Outcome Yes: 28.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 72.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Bank of Japan takes the action of Maintain current rate at December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes). Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the central bank announces its decision.

Contract: No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3251602; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/no-change-in-bank-of-japans-interest-rates-after-the-october-2026-meeting-20260731151539217
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 30, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Reported volume: $70.0K
Outcome Yes: 96.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 3.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.

If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Contract: No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-4713374; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/no-change-in-bank-of-japans-interest-rates-after-the-december-2026-meeting-20260918
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Reported volume: $4.2K
Outcome Yes: 25.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 75.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, scheduled for December 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.

If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.

If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will

Contract: Will the Bank of Japan Maintain current rate at the October 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26OCT29-HOLD; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcbdecisionjapan-26oct29
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 6, 2026, 2:30 AM UTC
Reported volume: 14.6K contracts
Outcome Yes: 94.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 5.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Bank of Japan takes the action of Maintain current rate at October 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes). Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the central bank announces its decision.

Contract: Will the Bank of Japan Cut more than 25bps at the December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26DEC17-C25P; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcbdecisionjapan-26dec17
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 25, 2026, 3:30 AM UTC
Reported volume: 93.8 contracts
Outcome Yes: 1.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 98.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Bank of Japan takes the action of Cut more than 25bps at December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes). Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the central bank announces its decision.

Contract: Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-4713372; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-japan-decreases-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-december-2026-meeting-20260918
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Reported volume: $1.5K
Outcome Yes: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, scheduled for December 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.

If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.

If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will

Contract: Will the Bank of Japan Hike more than 25bps at the December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26DEC17-H25P; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcbdecisionjapan-26dec17
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 25, 2026, 3:30 AM UTC
Reported volume: 187.8 contracts
Outcome Yes: 1.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 98.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Bank of Japan takes the action of Hike more than 25bps at December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes). Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the central bank announces its decision.

Contract: Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-4713376; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-japan-increases-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-december-2026-meeting-20260918
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Dec 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Reported volume: $1.8K
Outcome Yes: 0.8%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.3%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, scheduled for December 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.

If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.

If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will

Contract: Will the Bank of Japan Cut more than 25bps at the October 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26OCT29-C25P; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcbdecisionjapan-26oct29
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 6, 2026, 2:30 AM UTC
Reported volume: 952 contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Bank of Japan takes the action of Cut more than 25bps at October 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes). Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the central bank announces its decision.

Contract: Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3251600; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-japan-decreases-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-october-2026-meeting-20260731151539215
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 30, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Reported volume: $17.2K
Outcome Yes: <0.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: >99.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.

If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Contract: Will the Bank of Japan Hike more than 25bps at the October 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26OCT29-H25P; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcbdecisionjapan-26oct29
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 6, 2026, 2:30 AM UTC
Reported volume: 6.3K contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Bank of Japan takes the action of Hike more than 25bps at October 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes). Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the central bank announces its decision.

Contract: Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3251604; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-japan-increases-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-october-2026-meeting-20260731151539219
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 30, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Reported volume: $72.5K
Outcome Yes: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.

If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Saved cross-platform review:
polymarket-3251602 / kalshi-KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26DEC17-HOLD: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the Bank of Japan Maintain current rate at the December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-12-25T03:30:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 18, 2026, 5:34 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 3 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Bank of Japan rate decision in December". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-12-25T03:30:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Bank of Japan Decision in October?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-3251603 / kalshi-KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26DEC17-H25: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the Bank of Japan Hike 25bps at the December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-12-25T03:30:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 18, 2026, 5:34 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 3 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Bank of Japan rate decision in December". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-12-25T03:30:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Bank of Japan Decision in October?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-4713374 / kalshi-KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26DEC17-HOLD: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the Bank of Japan Maintain current rate at the December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-12-25T03:30:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-12-18T00:00:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 18, 2026, 5:34 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 5 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Bank of Japan rate decision in December". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-12-25T03:30:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Bank of Japan Decision in December?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-12-18T00:00:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-3251602 / kalshi-KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26OCT29-HOLD: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the Bank of Japan Maintain current rate at the October 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-06T02:30:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 18, 2026, 5:35 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 5 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Bank of Japan rate decision in October". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-06T02:30:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Bank of Japan Decision in October?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-3251603 / kalshi-KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26OCT29-H25: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the Bank of Japan Hike 25bps at the October 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-06T02:30:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 18, 2026, 5:35 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 5 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Bank of Japan rate decision in October". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-06T02:30:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Bank of Japan Decision in October?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-3251601 / kalshi-KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26DEC17-C25: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the Bank of Japan Cut 25bps at the December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-12-25T03:30:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 18, 2026, 5:34 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 3 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Bank of Japan rate decision in December". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-12-25T03:30:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Bank of Japan Decision in October?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-4713372 / kalshi-KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26DEC17-C25P: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the Bank of Japan Cut more than 25bps at the December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-12-25T03:30:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-12-18T00:00:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 18, 2026, 5:34 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 5 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Bank of Japan rate decision in December". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-12-25T03:30:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Bank of Japan Decision in December?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-12-18T00:00:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-4713373 / kalshi-KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26DEC17-C25: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the Bank of Japan Cut 25bps at the December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-12-25T03:30:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-12-18T00:00:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 18, 2026, 5:34 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 5 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Bank of Japan rate decision in December". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-12-25T03:30:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Bank of Japan Decision in December?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-12-18T00:00:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-4713376 / kalshi-KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26DEC17-H25P: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the Bank of Japan Hike more than 25bps at the December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-12-25T03:30:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-12-18T00:00:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 18, 2026, 5:34 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 5 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Bank of Japan rate decision in December". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-12-25T03:30:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Bank of Japan Decision in December?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-12-18T00:00:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-4713375 / kalshi-KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26DEC17-H25: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the Bank of Japan Hike 25bps at the December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-12-25T03:30:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-12-18T00:00:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 18, 2026, 5:34 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 5 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Bank of Japan rate decision in December". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-12-25T03:30:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Bank of Japan Decision in December?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-12-18T00:00:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-3251601 / kalshi-KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26OCT29-C25: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the Bank of Japan Cut 25bps at the October 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-06T02:30:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 18, 2026, 5:35 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 5 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Bank of Japan rate decision in October". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-06T02:30:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Bank of Japan Decision in October?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-3251600 / kalshi-KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26OCT29-C25P: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the Bank of Japan Cut more than 25bps at the October 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-06T02:30:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 18, 2026, 5:35 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 5 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Bank of Japan rate decision in October". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-06T02:30:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Bank of Japan Decision in October?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-3251604 / kalshi-KXCBDECISIONJAPAN-26OCT29-H25P: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the Bank of Japan Hike more than 25bps at the October 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-11-06T02:30:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 18, 2026, 5:35 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 5 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Bank of Japan rate decision in October". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-11-06T02:30:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Bank of Japan Decision in October?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

Explain the named outcomes, material rule/deadline differences, and evidence limits. Keep Polymarket dollar volume separate from Kalshi contract counts. Do not average unrelated contracts, infer missing prices or changes, or describe unreviewed/related pairs as equivalent. Distinguish listed prices from executable bid/ask prices, fees and available size. Do not invent current news, confidence scores or settlement guarantees. Cite the provided source links and identify what further evidence would be needed.

Tap text to select all

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Bank of Japan rate decision in December

Volume$3.17K

Markets5

POLYMARKETWorld

Bank of Japan Decision in October?

The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting. If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Volume$247.91K

Markets5

7 of 7

Sort:

Will the Bank of Japan Maintain current rate at the December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?

kalshi

Will the Bank of Japan Maintain current rate at the December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?

Yes: 28.0¢
No: 72.0¢

polymarket

No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Yes: 96.5¢
No: 3.5¢

polymarket

No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?

Yes: 25.0¢
No: 75.0¢

kalshi

Will the Bank of Japan Maintain current rate at the October 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?

Yes: 94.5¢
No: 5.5¢

Will the Bank of Japan Hike 25bps at the December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?

kalshi

Will the Bank of Japan Hike 25bps at the December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?

Yes: 71.5¢
No: 28.5¢

polymarket

Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Yes: 3.0¢
No: 97.0¢

polymarket

Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

Yes: 72.0¢
No: 28.0¢

kalshi

Will the Bank of Japan Hike 25bps at the October 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?

Yes: 4.5¢
No: 95.5¢

Will the Bank of Japan Hike more than 25bps at the December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?

Related contracts

The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the Bank of Japan Hike more than 25bps at the December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-12-25T03:30:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-12-18T00:00:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Reviewed: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 05:34:51 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

kalshi

Will the Bank of Japan Hike more than 25bps at the December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?

Yes: 1.5¢
No: 98.5¢

polymarket

Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?

Yes: 0.8¢
No: 99.3¢

Will the Bank of Japan Cut more than 25bps at the December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?

Related contracts

The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will the Bank of Japan Cut more than 25bps at the December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-12-25T03:30:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?"; listed deadline 2026-12-18T00:00:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Reviewed: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 05:34:51 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

kalshi

Will the Bank of Japan Cut more than 25bps at the December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?

Yes: 1.5¢
No: 98.5¢

polymarket

Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?

Yes: 0.5¢
No: 99.5¢

Will the Bank of Japan Cut 25bps at the December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?

kalshi

Will the Bank of Japan Cut 25bps at the December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?

Yes: 1.5¢
No: 98.5¢

polymarket

Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Yes: <0.1¢
No: >99.9¢

polymarket

Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

Yes: 0.7¢
No: 99.4¢

kalshi

Will the Bank of Japan Cut 25bps at the October 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?

Yes: 0.5¢
No: 99.5¢

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketKalshiEconomy

Swiss National Bank rate decision in December

PM $62.7K · K 31.4K contracts

Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the December meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Swiss National Bank maintain the current rate at the December monetary policy assessment?

Related contracts

PM Yes 82%Rules differK Yes 81.5%

Will the Swiss National Bank increase the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Swiss National Bank hike 1-25bps at the December monetary policy assessment?

Related contracts

PM Yes 17.7%Rules differK Yes 16.5%

Will the Swiss National Bank decrease the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Swiss National Bank cut 1-25bps at the December monetary policy assessment?

Related contracts

PM Yes 0.1%Rules differK Yes 1%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

5 saved comparisonsNext deadline Dec 10, 2026 UTC

PolymarketKalshiEconomy

Reserve Bank of India rate decision in December

PM $12.2K · K 16.1K contracts

Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Reserve Bank of India hike 1-25bps at the December Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 73%Rules differK Yes 70%

Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate at the December meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Reserve Bank of India maintain the current rate at the December Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 14.5%Rules differK Yes 20.5%

Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Reserve Bank of India hike more than 25bps at the December Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 10.5%Rules differK Yes 6%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

5 saved comparisonsNext deadline Dec 4, 2026 UTC

PolymarketKalshiWorld

Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in November

PM $156.8K · K 25.2K contracts

No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Reserve Bank of Australia maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 82.5%Rules differK Yes 81%

No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Reserve Bank of Australia maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 70%Rules differK Yes 81%

Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Reserve Bank of Australia hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 21.5%Rules differK Yes 16.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

8 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 4, 2026 UTC

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/q_nI7E" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Bank of Japan rate decision in December"></iframe>

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Bank of Japan rate decision in December

Bank of Japan rate decision in December

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Bank of Japan rate decision in December

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Events (4)

Bank of Japan rate decision in December

Bank of Japan Decision in October?

Markets (7)

Will the Bank of Japan Maintain current rate at the December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?

Will the Bank of Japan Hike 25bps at the December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?

Will the Bank of Japan Hike more than 25bps at the December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?

Will the Bank of Japan Cut more than 25bps at the December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?

Will the Bank of Japan Cut 25bps at the December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?

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polymarket

kalshi

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Bank of Japan rate decision in December

Rules & Resolution

Saved matching review

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Bank of Japan rate decision in December

Bank of Japan Decision in October?

Will the Bank of Japan Maintain current rate at the December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?

Will the Bank of Japan Hike 25bps at the December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?

Will the Bank of Japan Hike more than 25bps at the December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?

Will the Bank of Japan Cut more than 25bps at the December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?

Will the Bank of Japan Cut 25bps at the December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?

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