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Events
GroupPOLYMARKET

Bank of Japan Decision in January?

Bank of Japan Decision in January?
Vol

PM $4.8K

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Events

1

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Markets

5

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Oct 31, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is No Change at 59.5%.

Polymarket

  1. No Change59.5%
  2. 25 bps increase20%
  3. 25 bps decrease3.4%
  4. 50+ bps increase1.6%
  5. 50+ bps decrease0.5%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $4.8K

Reported volume · provider units

5

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 31, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the January 2027 meeting of the Bank of Japan's Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its January 2027 Monetary Policy Meeting, scheduled to conclude on January 22, 2027, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan's Policy Board resulting from its January 2027 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketKalshiWorld
Bank of Japan rate decision in December

Bank of Japan rate decision in December

PM $30.5K · K 7.7K contracts

Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Bank of Japan Hike 25bps at the December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 78.5%Rules differK Yes 75.5%

No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Bank of Japan Maintain current rate at the December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 15%Rules differK Yes 15.5%

Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Bank of Japan Cut 25bps at the December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 1.8%Rules differK Yes 1%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

3 saved comparisonsNext deadline Dec 18, 2026 UTC
PolymarketWorld
Bank of Japan Decision in March?

Bank of Japan Decision in March?

PM $1.3K
Will the Bank of Japan increase the uncollateralized overnight call rate by 25 bps at the March meeting?Yes 49%
Will the Bank of Japan make no change to the uncollateralized overnight call rate at the March meeting?Yes 48%
Will the Bank of Japan increase the uncollateralized overnight call rate by 50+ bps at the March meeting?Yes 4.5%
+2 moreNext deadline Mar 18, 2027 UTC
PolymarketKalshiWorld
Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in November

Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in November

PM $287.6K · K 77.8K contracts

Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Reserve Bank of Australia hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 21%Rules differK Yes 91.5%

No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Reserve Bank of Australia maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 72.5%Rules differK Yes 8.5%

No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Reserve Bank of Australia maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting?

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 8.9%Rules differK Yes 8.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

6 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 4, 2026 UTC
PolymarketWorld
Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December?

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December?

PM $51.0K
Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?Yes 69.5%
No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?Yes 24.5%
Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 50+ bps at the December 2026 meeting?Yes 4.5%
+2 moreNext deadline Dec 9, 2026 UTC
PolymarketWorld
Bank of Korea decision in November?

Bank of Korea decision in November?

PM $42.0K
Will the Bank of Korea hike by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?Yes 72.5%
Will the Bank of Korea hold at the November 2026 meeting?Yes 21.5%
Will the Bank of Korea hike by 50 bps or more at the November 2026 meeting?Yes 3.4%
+2 moreNext deadline Nov 26, 2026 UTC
KalshiWorld
Bank of Israel rate decision in November

Bank of Israel rate decision in November

K 32.0K contracts
Will the Bank of Israel maintain the current rate at the November Monetary Committee meeting?Yes 46%
Will the Bank of Israel cut 1-25bps at the November Monetary Committee meeting?Yes 25.5%
Will the Bank of Israel hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Committee meeting?Yes 18%
+2 moreNext deadline Nov 30, 2026 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

0

Same-question pairs

0

No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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