Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Which Senators will vote for Heidi Overton?

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$3.08K

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Which Senators will vote for Heidi Overton?

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$3.08K

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Kalshi

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markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $3.08K

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0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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Volume DistributionTotal: $3.08K

100%

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10 markets tracked

Will Rand Paul vote for Heidi Overton?

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Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Rand Paul vote for Heidi Overton?	Kalshi	71%
Will Thom Tillis vote for Heidi Overton?	Kalshi	48%
Will Mitch McConnell vote for Heidi Overton?	Kalshi	41%
Will Susan Collins vote for Heidi Overton?	Kalshi	31%
Will Lisa Murkowski vote for Heidi Overton?	Kalshi	21%
Will John Fetterman vote for Heidi Overton?	Kalshi	21%
Will Bill Cassidy vote for Heidi Overton?	Kalshi	21%
Will Tim Kaine vote for Heidi Overton?	Kalshi	11%
Will Ruben Gallego vote for Heidi Overton?	Kalshi	11%
Will Maggie Hassan vote for Heidi Overton?	Kalshi	11%

AI Analysis

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71%

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$3.08K

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About This Event

Before 2028 If X votes Yea for Heidi Overton for Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, or should a withdrawal of the nominee's nomination be formally communicated to the United States Senate, this market shall resolve to No. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which Senators will vote for Heidi Overton?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before 2028

If X votes Yea for Heidi Overton for Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, or should a withdrawal of the nominee's nomination be formally communicated to the United States Senate, this market shall resolve to No. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Thom Tillis votes Yea for Heidi Overton for Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, o"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Thom Tillis vote for Heidi Overton?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $885
  DATA: [Yes: 47.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Tim Kaine vote for Heidi Overton?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Susan Collins vote for Heidi Overton?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 31.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Rand Paul vote for Heidi Overton?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 71.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Ruben Gallego vote for Heidi Overton?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Mitch McConnell vote for Heidi Overton?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 40.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Maggie Hassan vote for Heidi Overton?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Lisa Murkowski vote for Heidi Overton?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 21.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will John Fetterman vote for Heidi Overton?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 21.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Bill Cassidy vote for Heidi Overton?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $708
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

Which Senators will vote for Heidi Overton?

Volume$3.08K

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KALSHI

Will Rand Paul vote for Heidi Overton?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 71.0¢No 29.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Rand Paul vote for Heidi Overton?

If Rand Paul votes Yea for Heidi Overton for Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, or

KALSHI

Will Thom Tillis vote for Heidi Overton?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 47.5¢No 52.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Thom Tillis vote for Heidi Overton?

If Thom Tillis votes Yea for Heidi Overton for Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, o

KALSHI

Will Mitch McConnell vote for Heidi Overton?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 40.5¢No 59.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Mitch McConnell vote for Heidi Overton?

If Mitch McConnell votes Yea for Heidi Overton for Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of vote

KALSHI

Will Susan Collins vote for Heidi Overton?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 31.0¢No 69.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Susan Collins vote for Heidi Overton?

If Susan Collins votes Yea for Heidi Overton for Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes,

KALSHI

Will Lisa Murkowski vote for Heidi Overton?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 21.0¢No 79.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Lisa Murkowski vote for Heidi Overton?

If Lisa Murkowski votes Yea for Heidi Overton for Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes

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Which Senators will vote for Heidi Overton?

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Will Rand Paul vote for Heidi Overton?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Which Senators will vote for Heidi Overton?

Markets (10)

Will Rand Paul vote for Heidi Overton?

Will Rand Paul vote for Heidi Overton?

Will Thom Tillis vote for Heidi Overton?

Will Thom Tillis vote for Heidi Overton?

Will Mitch McConnell vote for Heidi Overton?

Will Mitch McConnell vote for Heidi Overton?

Will Susan Collins vote for Heidi Overton?

Will Susan Collins vote for Heidi Overton?

Will Lisa Murkowski vote for Heidi Overton?

Will Lisa Murkowski vote for Heidi Overton?

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Will Rand Paul vote for Heidi Overton?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Which Senators will vote for Heidi Overton?

Will Rand Paul vote for Heidi Overton?

Will Rand Paul vote for Heidi Overton?

Will Thom Tillis vote for Heidi Overton?

Will Thom Tillis vote for Heidi Overton?

Will Mitch McConnell vote for Heidi Overton?

Will Mitch McConnell vote for Heidi Overton?

Will Susan Collins vote for Heidi Overton?

Will Susan Collins vote for Heidi Overton?

Will Lisa Murkowski vote for Heidi Overton?

Will Lisa Murkowski vote for Heidi Overton?

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