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Kerala Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Name: Kerala Legislative Assembly Election Winner
End: 2026-04-09T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$396.47K

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Markets

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Kerala Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Vol

$396.47K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $396.47K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $396.47K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

10 markets tracked

Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?	Poly	75%
Will the Kerala Congress (M) (KEC(M)) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?	Poly	25%
Will the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?	Poly	0%
Will the Communist Party of India (CPI) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?	Poly	0%
Will the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?	Poly	0%
Will the Janata Dal (Secular) (JD(S)) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?	Poly	0%
Will the Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?	Poly	0%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?	Poly	0%
Will the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?	Poly	0%
Will the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

75%

Top Probability

$396.47K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, July 14, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Kerala Legislative Assembly Election Winner
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 9, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.

If the results are not known definitively by "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $396.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $105.5K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.76)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 9, 2026): Vol $20.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 9, 2026): Vol $70.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 74.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 25.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Communist Party of India (CPI) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 9, 2026): Vol $36.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Kerala Congress (M) (KEC(M)) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 9, 2026): Vol $72.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 9, 2026): Vol $26.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the Janata Dal (Secular) (JD(S)) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 9, 2026): Vol $17.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 9, 2026): Vol $16.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 9, 2026): Vol $68.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 9, 2026): Vol $49.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 9, 2026): Vol $18.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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