GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETEconomy

Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?

Name: Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?
End: 2027-07-01T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$30.32K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?

Vol

$30.32K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $30.32K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $30.32K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Will Warsh be out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Warsh be out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2027?	Poly	11%
Will Warsh be out as Fed Chair by December 31, 2026?	Poly	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

11%

Top Probability

$30.32K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kevin Warsh’s departure as Chair of the Federal Reserve of the United States is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The departure will be considered to be announced when Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve of the United States, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Kevin Warsh has ceased or will cease to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve of th

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jul 1, 2027 (299 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kevin Warsh’s departure as Chair of the Federal Reserve of the United States is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The departure will be considered to be announced when Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve of the United States, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Kevin Warsh has ceased or will cease to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve of th

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kevin Warsh’s departure as Chair of the Federal Reserve of the United States is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The departure will be considered to be announced when Kevin Warsh, the Federal R"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $30.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $74.7K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.41)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Warsh be out as Fed Chair by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $11.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.7% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Warsh be out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 1, 2027): Vol $18.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETEconomy