Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETEconomy

Mortgage delinquency rate exceeds 3% by end of Q4 2027?

Name: Mortgage delinquency rate exceeds 3% by end of Q4 2027?
End: 2028-04-01T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.13K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Mortgage delinquency rate exceeds 3% by end of Q4 2027?

Vol

$1.13K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.13K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.13K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Mortgage delinquency rate exceeds 3% by end of Q4 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Mortgage delinquency rate exceeds 3% by end of Q4 2027?	Poly	28%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

28%

Top Probability

$1.13K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the mortgage delinquency rate is greater than 3.00% for any quarter from Q3 2026 through Q4 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The mortgage delinquency rate is the delinquency rate on residential real estate loans shown in the "Residential" column under "Real estate loans, Booked in domestic offices" in the Federal Reserve's "Delinquency Rates, All Banks, SA" table (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/chargeoff/delallsa.htm). This market

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Mortgage delinquency rate exceeds 3% by end of Q4 2027?
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 1, 2028 (538 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if the mortgage delinquency rate is greater than 3.00% for any quarter from Q3 2026 through Q4 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The mortgage delinquency rate is the delinquency rate on residential real estate loans shown in the "Residential" column under "Real estate loans, Booked in domestic offices" in the Federal Reserve's "Delinquency Rates, All Banks, SA" table (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/chargeoff/delallsa.htm).

This market

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the mortgage delinquency rate is greater than 3.00% for any quarter from Q3 2026 through Q4 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The mortgage delinquency rate is the delinquency rate on residential real estate loans shown in the "Residential" colum"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $129
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 8.76)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Mortgage delinquency rate exceeds 3% by end of Q4 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 1, 2028): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 28.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETEconomy