GroupKALSHI

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New Supreme Court justice confirmed?

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New Supreme Court justice confirmed?

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Polymarket

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Kalshi

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5 markets tracked

Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by January 20, 2029?

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Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by January 20, 2029?	Kalshi	80%
Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by December 31, 2027?	Kalshi	64%
Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by May 31, 2027?	Kalshi	30%
Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	26%
Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by September 30, 2026?	Kalshi	12%

AI Analysis

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80%

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About This Event

In 2025 If the Senate confirms a new justice to the Supreme Court between X Y Z then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** New Supreme Court justice confirmed?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2025

If the Senate confirms a new justice to the Supreme Court between X Y Z then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Senate confirms a new justice to the Supreme Court between Issuance and January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by January 20, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 21, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 80.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 20.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by December 31, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 63.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 36.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by May 31, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 29.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by September 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 25.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

New Supreme Court justice confirmed?

Volume$0.00

Markets5

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KALSHI

Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by January 20, 2029?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 80.0¢No 20.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by January 20, 2029?

If the Senate confirms a new justice to the Supreme Court between Issuance and January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

KALSHI

Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by December 31, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 63.5¢No 36.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by December 31, 2027?

If the Senate confirms a new justice to the Supreme Court between Issuance and December 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

KALSHI

Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by May 31, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 29.5¢No 70.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by May 31, 2027?

If the Senate confirms a new justice to the Supreme Court between Issuance and May 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

KALSHI

Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by Dec 31, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 25.5¢No 74.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by Dec 31, 2026?

If the Senate confirms a new justice to the Supreme Court between Issuance and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

KALSHI

Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by September 30, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.5¢No 88.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by September 30, 2026?

If the Senate confirms a new justice to the Supreme Court between Issuance and September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/rT4-bm" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="New Supreme Court justice confirmed?"></iframe>

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Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by January 20, 2029?

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Events (1)

New Supreme Court justice confirmed?

Markets (5)

Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by January 20, 2029?

Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by January 20, 2029?

Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by December 31, 2027?

Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by December 31, 2027?

Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by May 31, 2027?

Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by May 31, 2027?

Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by Dec 31, 2026?

Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by Dec 31, 2026?

Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by September 30, 2026?

Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by September 30, 2026?

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Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by January 20, 2029?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

New Supreme Court justice confirmed?

Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by January 20, 2029?

Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by January 20, 2029?

Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by December 31, 2027?

Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by December 31, 2027?

Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by May 31, 2027?

Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by May 31, 2027?

Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by Dec 31, 2026?

Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by Dec 31, 2026?

Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by September 30, 2026?

Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by September 30, 2026?

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