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Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?

Name: Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?
End: 2029-01-19T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$4.78K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?

Vol

$4.78K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $4.78K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $4.78K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Will Ted Cruz be the next Supreme Court nominee?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Ted Cruz be the next Supreme Court nominee?	Poly	19%
Will James Ho be the next Supreme Court nominee?	Poly	19%
Will Gregory Katsas be the next Supreme Court nominee?	Poly	16%
Will Andrew Oldham be the next Supreme Court nominee?	Poly	13%
Will Steven Menashi be the next Supreme Court nominee?	Poly	9%
Will Amul Thapar be the next Supreme Court nominee?	Poly	9%
Will Patrick Bumatay be the next Supreme Court nominee?	Poly	9%
Will Neomi Rao be the next Supreme Court nominee?	Poly	8%
Will Mike Lee be the next Supreme Court nominee?	Poly	5%
Will Aileen Cannon be the next Supreme Court nominee?	Poly	5%
Will John Sauer be the next Supreme Court nominee?	Poly	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

19%

Top Probability

$4.78K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 19, 2029 (868 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET. 

Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET. 

Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

In the event that more than one such nomination"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $4.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $6.0K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.79)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will John Sauer be the next Supreme Court nominee?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 19, 2029): Vol $121
  DATA: [Yes: 3.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.3% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Mike Lee be the next Supreme Court nominee?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 19, 2029): Vol $125
  DATA: [Yes: 4.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.2% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Ted Cruz be the next Supreme Court nominee?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 19, 2029): Vol $160
  DATA: [Yes: 19.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Andrew Oldham be the next Supreme Court nominee?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 19, 2029): Vol $637
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Aileen Cannon be the next Supreme Court nominee?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 19, 2029): Vol $295
  DATA: [Yes: 4.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.2% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will James Ho be the next Supreme Court nominee?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 19, 2029): Vol $644
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Neomi Rao be the next Supreme Court nominee?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 19, 2029): Vol $108
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Gregory Katsas be the next Supreme Court nominee?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 19, 2029): Vol $147
  DATA: [Yes: 15.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.2% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Patrick Bumatay be the next Supreme Court nominee?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 19, 2029): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.3% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Steven Menashi be the next Supreme Court nominee?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 19, 2029): Vol $105
  DATA: [Yes: 9.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.8% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Amul Thapar be the next Supreme Court nominee?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 19, 2029): Vol $918
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics