Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | PredictPedia

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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Name: Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$6.27M

Events

Markets

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Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

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Polymarket

markets · $6.27M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $6.27M

100%

Polymarket leads

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1 market tracked

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Poly	14%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

14%

Top Probability

$6.27M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Natio

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (350 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. 

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Natio

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China incl"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $6.27M
* **Total Liquidity:** $376.5K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 16.66)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $6.27M
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

349d 18h remaining

Dec 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

14¢

Polymarket

Arbitrage Opps

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Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

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Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)