Market snapshot: Oct 14, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETFinance

Fed rate cut by...?

Name: Fed rate cut by...?
End: 2028-01-29T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$3.77M

Events

Markets

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Fed rate cut by...?

Vol

$3.77M

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $3.77M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Price gaps

of 0 cross-platform

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Volume DistributionTotal: $3.77M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Fed rate cut by July 2027 meeting?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Fed rate cut by July 2027 meeting?	Poly	53%
Fed rate cut by June 2027 meeting?	Poly	36%
Fed rate cut by April 2027 meeting?	Poly	33%
Fed rate cut by March 2027 meeting?	Poly	16%
Fed rate cut by January 2027 meeting?	Poly	5%
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Poly	3%
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

53%

Top Probability

$3.77M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. Th

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, October 14, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Fed rate cut by...?
**Category:** Finance | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 29, 2028 (472 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". 

Emergency rate cuts will qualify.

Th

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2027, currently scheduled for January 26 to 27. Otherwise, this market will res"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $631.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $201.3K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.14)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Fed rate cut by January 2027 meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 8, 2027): Vol $3.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Fed rate cut by March 2027 meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 8, 2027): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Fed rate cut by July 2027 meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 8, 2027): Vol $115
  DATA: [Yes: 53.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 47.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Fed rate cut by April 2027 meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 8, 2027): Vol $50
  DATA: [Yes: 32.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Fed rate cut by June 2027 meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 8, 2027): Vol $27
  DATA: [Yes: 36.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 29, 2027): Vol $216.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 7. Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 29, 2027): Vol $409.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.4% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETFinance

Fed rate cut by...?

Volume$3.77M

Markets7

7 of 7

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POLYMARKET

Fed rate cut by July 2027 meeting?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 53.0¢No 47.0¢

POLYMARKETFinance

Fed rate cut by July 2027 meeting?

POLYMARKET

Fed rate cut by June 2027 meeting?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 36.0¢No 64.0¢

POLYMARKETFinance

Fed rate cut by June 2027 meeting?

POLYMARKET

Fed rate cut by April 2027 meeting?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 32.5¢No 67.5¢

POLYMARKETFinance

Fed rate cut by April 2027 meeting?

POLYMARKET

Fed rate cut by March 2027 meeting?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 15.5¢No 84.5¢

POLYMARKETFinance

Fed rate cut by March 2027 meeting?

POLYMARKET

Fed rate cut by January 2027 meeting?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢

POLYMARKETFinance

Fed rate cut by January 2027 meeting?

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Next Market Deadline

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Jan 29, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

Saved price pairs

No exact saved pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/rnAsNt" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Fed rate cut by...?"></iframe>

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Fed rate cut by July 2027 meeting?

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Events (1)

Fed rate cut by...?

Markets (7)

Fed rate cut by July 2027 meeting?

Fed rate cut by July 2027 meeting?

Fed rate cut by June 2027 meeting?

Fed rate cut by June 2027 meeting?

Fed rate cut by April 2027 meeting?

Fed rate cut by April 2027 meeting?

Fed rate cut by March 2027 meeting?

Fed rate cut by March 2027 meeting?

Fed rate cut by January 2027 meeting?

Fed rate cut by January 2027 meeting?

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Fed rate cut by July 2027 meeting?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Fed rate cut by...?

Fed rate cut by July 2027 meeting?

Fed rate cut by July 2027 meeting?

Fed rate cut by June 2027 meeting?

Fed rate cut by June 2027 meeting?

Fed rate cut by April 2027 meeting?

Fed rate cut by April 2027 meeting?

Fed rate cut by March 2027 meeting?

Fed rate cut by March 2027 meeting?

Fed rate cut by January 2027 meeting?

Fed rate cut by January 2027 meeting?

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