Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

How many U.S. visas will be revoked in 2026?

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How many U.S. visas will be revoked in 2026?

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6 markets tracked

Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 100000 in calendar year 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 100000 in calendar year 2026?	Kalshi	90%
Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 150000 in calendar year 2026?	Kalshi	80%
Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 200000 in calendar year 2026?	Kalshi	69%
Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 250000 in calendar year 2026?	Kalshi	50%
Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 300000 in calendar year 2026?	Kalshi	30%
Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 400000 in calendar year 2026?	Kalshi	11%

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90%

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About This Event

2026 If the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State is at least X in calendar year 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The count is the State Department's total visa revocations across all visa categories and grounds during calendar year 2026, ending before January 1, 2027. Visa refusals, expirations, and planned revocations do not count. The first official full-year total is used; partial-year figures and totals spanning 2025 and 2026 are not the full-year total. If the tota

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many U.S. visas will be revoked in 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2026

If the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State is at least X in calendar year 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The count is the State Department's total visa revocations across all visa categories and grounds during calendar year 2026, ending before January 1, 2027. Visa refusals, expirations, and planned revocations do not count. The first official full-year total is used; partial-year figures and totals spanning 2025 and 2026 are not the full-year total. If the tota

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State is at least 400,000 in calendar year 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The count is the State Department's total visa revocations across all visa categories and grounds during calendar year 2026, ending before Janua"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 400000 in calendar year 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 300000 in calendar year 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 29.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 250000 in calendar year 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 200000 in calendar year 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 68.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 31.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 150000 in calendar year 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 79.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 20.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 100000 in calendar year 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 89.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 10.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

How many U.S. visas will be revoked in 2026?

Volume$0.00

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KALSHI

Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 100000 in calendar year 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 89.5¢No 10.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 100000 in calendar year 2026?

If the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State is at least 100,000 in calendar year 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The count is the State Department's total visa revocations across all visa categories and grounds during calendar year 2026, ending before Janua

KALSHI

Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 150000 in calendar year 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 79.5¢No 20.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 150000 in calendar year 2026?

If the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State is at least 150,000 in calendar year 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The count is the State Department's total visa revocations across all visa categories and grounds during calendar year 2026, ending before Janua

KALSHI

Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 200000 in calendar year 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 68.5¢No 31.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 200000 in calendar year 2026?

If the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State is at least 200,000 in calendar year 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The count is the State Department's total visa revocations across all visa categories and grounds during calendar year 2026, ending before Janua

KALSHI

Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 250000 in calendar year 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 49.5¢No 50.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 250000 in calendar year 2026?

If the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State is at least 250,000 in calendar year 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The count is the State Department's total visa revocations across all visa categories and grounds during calendar year 2026, ending before Janua

KALSHI

Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 300000 in calendar year 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 29.5¢No 70.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 300000 in calendar year 2026?

If the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State is at least 300,000 in calendar year 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The count is the State Department's total visa revocations across all visa categories and grounds during calendar year 2026, ending before Janua

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/rw7jS1" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="How many U.S. visas will be revoked in 2026?"></iframe>

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How many U.S. visas will be revoked in 2026?

How many U.S. visas will be revoked in 2026?

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Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 100000 in calendar year 2026?

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Events (1)

How many U.S. visas will be revoked in 2026?

Markets (6)

Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 100000 in calendar year 2026?

Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 100000 in calendar year 2026?

Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 150000 in calendar year 2026?

Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 150000 in calendar year 2026?

Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 200000 in calendar year 2026?

Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 200000 in calendar year 2026?

Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 250000 in calendar year 2026?

Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 250000 in calendar year 2026?

Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 300000 in calendar year 2026?

Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 300000 in calendar year 2026?

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Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 100000 in calendar year 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How many U.S. visas will be revoked in 2026?

Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 100000 in calendar year 2026?

Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 100000 in calendar year 2026?

Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 150000 in calendar year 2026?

Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 150000 in calendar year 2026?

Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 200000 in calendar year 2026?

Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 200000 in calendar year 2026?

Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 250000 in calendar year 2026?

Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 250000 in calendar year 2026?

Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 300000 in calendar year 2026?

Will the number of visas revoked by the U.S. Department of State be at least 300000 in calendar year 2026?

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