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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-22 House seat? | Poly | 64% |
Will the Republican Party win the FL-22 House seat? | Poly | 30% |
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed af
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on the outcome of Florida's 22nd congressional district House election in 2026. The market resolves based on which political party wins this U.S. House seat during the midterm elections scheduled for November 4, 2026. The winner is determined by the candidate's ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party affiliation when major media outlets and election authorities conclusively call all 2026 House races. Florida's 22nd district is a competitive seat in South Florida that has changed party control multiple times in recent election cycles, making it a bellwether for national political trends. The district includes coastal areas of Broward and Palm Beach counties, encompassing communities like Fort Lauderdale, Pompano Beach, and Deerfield Beach. In the 2024 election cycle, the seat was held by Democrat Jared Moskowitz, who succeeded Democrat Ted Deutch after his 2022 retirement. The 2026 election will occur during a midterm cycle where the sitting president's party typically faces headwinds, adding another layer of uncertainty to this already competitive district. Political observers monitor FL-22 because its demographic mix of retirees, suburban voters, and diverse communities often reflects broader national political shifts.
Florida's 22nd congressional district has a history of competitive elections and party switches. The district was created after the 1990 census and was originally represented by Republican Clay Shaw from 1993 to 2007. Shaw lost to Democrat Ron Klein in 2006 during a Democratic wave election. Klein held the seat for two terms before losing to Republican Allen West in the 2010 Republican wave. West served only one term, defeated by Democrat Patrick Murphy in 2012. Murphy held the seat for two terms before running for Senate in 2016. Democrat Ted Deutch won the seat in a 2010 special election for the adjacent 19th district, then moved to the 22nd district after 2012 redistricting and held it until his 2022 retirement. The district's boundaries have changed multiple times through redistricting. The 2022 redistricting cycle maintained a district that voted for Joe Biden by 11.5 points in 2020, according to Dave's Redistricting App calculations. This voting history explains why both parties invest significant resources here every election cycle. The district's tendency to swing between parties makes it one of Florida's most watched congressional races.
The outcome of FL-22 matters for national political control. With the U.S. House often decided by narrow margins, competitive seats like this one can determine which party holds the majority and sets the legislative agenda. A flip from Democrat to Republican in 2026 could indicate broader midterm trends affecting similar suburban districts across the country. The district's demographic composition also makes it significant. Its mix of older retirees, younger professionals, and diverse ethnic communities represents a microcosm of evolving American electoral politics. Policy decisions made by the House majority affect everything from healthcare and Social Security to climate policy and immigration reform. For South Florida specifically, the representative influences federal funding for coastal protection, hurricane recovery, and transportation infrastructure. The election outcome will shape how these community needs are addressed in Congress.
As of early 2025, Jared Moskowitz is serving his first term in Congress after winning the 2024 election. No candidates have officially declared for the 2026 election, though political operatives from both parties are beginning to assess potential contenders. The Republican Party is expected to recruit a strong challenger, possibly including 2024 nominee Joe Scott or new candidates. District boundaries remain unchanged from the 2022 redistricting cycle, and no court challenges to the map are currently pending. The political environment will be shaped by the 2024 presidential election outcome and the first two years of the new administration's term.
The district includes parts of Broward and Palm Beach counties, encompassing Fort Lauderdale, Pompano Beach, Deerfield Beach, Boca Raton, and surrounding communities. The exact boundaries can be viewed on the Florida Legislature's redistricting website.
Candidate qualifying in Florida typically occurs in June of the election year. The exact dates for 2026 will be set by the Florida Division of Elections in early 2026, but candidates often announce their campaigns and begin fundraising a year or more before the election.
Florida will redraw congressional districts after the 2030 census. The current map from 2022 will remain in effect for the 2024 and 2026 elections. Any legal challenges to the map would need to be resolved before the 2026 election cycle.
Approximately 27% of registered voters in the district have no party affiliation according to October 2024 data from the Florida Division of Elections. These independent voters often decide close elections in this competitive district.
The district has changed party control five times since 2006, making it one of Florida's most competitive seats. However, from 2012 to 2022, Democrats held the seat consistently before the 2022 open seat election brought new competition.
Jared Moskowitz serves on the House Foreign Affairs Committee and the House Oversight and Accountability Committee. These assignments give him influence on international policy and government oversight matters.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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