GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?

Name: Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$176.41K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?

Vol

$176.41K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $176.41K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $176.41K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will Juan Reyes Mejía González be arrested in 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Juan Reyes Mejía González be arrested in 2026?	Poly	58%
Will Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar be arrested in 2026?	Poly	56%
Will Juan Pablo Ledezma be arrested in 2026?	Poly	51%
Will Ricardo Ruiz Velasco be arrested in 2026?	Poly	46%
Will Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar be arrested in 2026?	Poly	45%
Will Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan be arrested in 2026?	Poly	35%
Will Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez be arrested in 2026?	Poly	26%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

58%

Top Probability

$176.41K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement autho

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 1, 2027 (118 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement autho

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warran"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $170.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $592
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 287.88)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar be arrested in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $6.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 56.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 43.6% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar be arrested in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $6.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 45.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Ricardo Ruiz Velasco be arrested in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $61.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 46.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan be arrested in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $4.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 35.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.6% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez be arrested in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $58.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 26.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Juan Reyes Mejía González be arrested in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $33.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 58.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 42.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Juan Pablo Ledezma be arrested in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $658
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics