Lima Mayor winner?
K 65.5K contracts
1
11
Lima Mayor winner?
K 65.5K contracts
1
11
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 26, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Rafael López Aliaga at 76.5%.
Kalshi
- Rafael López Aliaga76.5%
- Francis Allison2.5%
- Samuel Daza2%
- Susel Paredes1.5%
- Carlos Bruce1%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 65.5K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
11
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
in 2026 If X wins the 2026 Lima mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the election winner is officially declared or certified.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-13T03:00:06.088Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The saved Kalshi event asks "Lima Mayor winner?" and lists eleven separate contracts, one for each named candidate. Each contract is a Yes or No question about a single candidate, for example "Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Lima mayoral election?" The event excerpt states that "If X wins the 2026 Lima mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes." [1] It also says the market "is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls" and "will close and expire early if the election winner is officially declared or certified." [1] The full rules are not in the supplied evidence, so resolution details beyond this excerpt cannot be confirmed.
The market data lists an end date of 2027-10-04T14:00:00.000Z for every contract. [1] The excerpt, however, says "Listed end time: not supplied." [1] These two entries conflict, and the end date should be treated as a listed contract field rather than an announced event date. Because the rules also allow early closure, the listed end date does not establish when the market will actually close or resolve.
Reading the snapshot
The prices were observed at 2026-10-13T03:00:06.088Z and retrieved at 2026-10-13T04:22:16.474Z. [1] They describe that saved moment only and are not live quotes. The Yes prices are López Aliaga at 0.87, Bruce at 0.17, Allison at 0.075, and eight other candidates at 0.005 each. [1]
These prices should not be read as verified probabilities. The Yes prices in this sample add up to more than 1, so each contract should be read on its own terms. The snapshot does not explain why any price is where it is, and it does not show how many traders are involved or how much liquidity sits behind each price. The volume field is not a measure of liquidity or trader count.
The sample includes all 11 saved markets for this event, with no partial sampling. [1] The evidence also states that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome." [1] Any candidate not listed in this saved event is outside the sample, and no inference about their prices should be drawn.
What remains uncertain
The full rules, the official resolution process, and the actual status of the election are not in the supplied evidence. The end date conflict noted above is unresolved. Prices from this single Kalshi event should not be compared with contracts on other platforms, because wording, end dates, and resolution criteria may differ, and differing prices do not by themselves indicate an arbitrage opportunity.
References
- Kalshi: Lima Mayor winner?. Provider data observed 2026-10-13T03:00:06.088Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 13, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract asks whether a named candidate will win the 2026 Lima mayoral election. The contract rule states that if a given candidate, identified as X in the rules, wins that election, the market resolves to Yes [1]. The event is listed on Kalshi under the title "Lima Mayor winner?" and is categorized under Elections [1]. The provider lists its status as active and does not supply a listed end time for the event [1]. The contract includes an early-close provision. The market is eligible for accelerated resolution based on a consensus of media calls, and it will close and expire early if the election winner is officially declared or certified [1]. Under the contract rules, the early-close trigger is the official declaration or certification, not the date printed in the market metadata. The market metadata shows an end date of 2027-10-04 at 14:00 UTC for each of the saved markets [1]. That date appears in the contract rules and is not an announced election or result date, so it should not be read as the day the election will be decided. The saved event contains eleven separate markets, one for each named candidate, each asking whether that person will win the 2026 Lima mayoral election [1]. Each market has a Yes outcome and a No outcome with a price attached. All eleven markets from the saved event are included in this snapshot, so no candidate has been left out of the sample for this event [1]. The sample warning still applies: the saved provider event does not establish that every possible real-world candidate is listed.
Historical Context
Lima's mayoralty has recent changes in office recorded in the supplied sources. Jorge Muñoz Wells served as mayor of Lima from January 2019 until he was removed from office by the National Jury of Elections in April 2022, and he previously served as mayor of Miraflores from 2011 to 2018 [3]. Rafael López Aliaga served as mayor of Lima from 2023 to 2025 [2]. The supplied sources do not describe the period between these two terms or establish who holds the office today, and the Wikipedia pages are background references rather than current reporting.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether a specific named candidate wins the 2026 Lima mayoral election, as defined by the contract rules [1]. A Yes outcome on a given candidate's market resolves to Yes only if that candidate wins the election, and the rules tie early closure to an official declaration or certification [1]. Because each named candidate has a separate market, the set of prices shows how each candidate's contract is trading at the snapshot time, not how the outcome is decided. The prices in the snapshot were observed at 2026-10-13 03:00:06 UTC. At that time, the Yes prices were 0.87 for López Aliaga, 0.17 for Carlos Bruce, 0.075 for Francis Allison, and 0.005 for each of eight other named candidates [1]. These are snapshot prices from a provider. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The Yes prices across the saved markets add up to more than one, so they cannot be read together as a complete probability distribution. Trading volume is not included as evidence of liquidity or of the number of participants, and differing prices across contracts do not by themselves indicate an opportunity.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-13 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What makes a candidate's Yes outcome resolve to Yes?
The contract rule states that if X wins the 2026 Lima mayoral election, the market resolves to Yes [1]. Each separate market names one candidate, so the Yes outcome applies to that candidate only.
When can this market close early?
The market will close and expire early if the election winner is officially declared or certified [1]. The rules also make the market eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls [1].
Does the 2027 end date mean the election result is expected then?
No. The saved market metadata lists an end date of 2027-10-04 at 14:00 UTC, but the provider's event page does not supply a listed end time, and the early-close rule ties closure to an official declaration or certification [1]. The date should be read as a contract-rule date only.
Does the Yes price show the chance a candidate will win?
No. The prices are snapshots from a provider at a specific observation time, not verified probabilities or executable quotes [1]. The Yes prices in this sample also sum to more than one, which is a reason not to treat them as a probability distribution.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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