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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

xAI Grok score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

Name: xAI Grok score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?
End: 2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$20.79K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

xAI Grok score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

Vol

$20.79K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $20.79K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Price gaps

of 0 cross-platform

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Volume DistributionTotal: $20.79K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will any xAI Grok model score at least 25% on the FrontierMath Exam?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will any xAI Grok model score at least 25% on the FrontierMath Exam?	Poly	47%
Will any xAI Grok model score at least 30% on the FrontierMath Exam?	Poly	43%
Will any xAI Grok model score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Exam?	Poly	35%
Will any xAI Grok model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?	Poly	15%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

47%

Top Probability

$20.79K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by FJune 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution sourc

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** xAI Grok score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 30, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by FJune 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.

The primary resolution sourc

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $20.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $1.1K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 19.45)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will any xAI Grok model score at least 25% on the FrontierMath Exam?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 28, 2026): Vol $5.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 46.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will any xAI Grok model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 28, 2026): Vol $170
  DATA: [Yes: 15.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will any xAI Grok model score at least 30% on the FrontierMath Exam?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 28, 2026): Vol $12.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 42.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will any xAI Grok model score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Exam?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 28, 2026): Vol $2.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 34.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETTech