Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 9:10 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Trump approval rating on October 16?

Name: Trump approval rating on October 16?
End: 2026-10-17T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$414.90

Events

Markets

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Trump approval rating on October 16?

Vol

$414.90

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $414.90

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Price gaps

of 0 cross-platform

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Volume DistributionTotal: $414.90

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

10 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will Trump's approval rating be between 37.2 and 37.3 on October 16, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Trump's approval rating be between 37.2 and 37.3 on October 16, 2026?	Poly	19%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 37.4 and 37.5 on October 16, 2026?	Poly	19%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 37.6 and 37.7 on October 16, 2026?	Poly	18%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 37.0 and 37.1 on October 16, 2026?	Poly	17%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 36.8 on October 16, 2026?	Poly	12%
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 38.4 on October 16, 2026?	Poly	10%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 36.8 and 36.9 on October 16, 2026?	Poly	9%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 38.2 and 38.3 on October 16, 2026?	Poly	7%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 37.8 and 37.9 on October 16, 2026?	Poly	7%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.1 on October 16, 2026?	Poly	5%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

19%

Top Probability

$414.90

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to Donald Trump's approval rating as reported by RealClearPolling at 5:00 PM ET on October 16, 2026. This market's resolution source will be RealClearPolling's presidential job approval poll average, https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating, specifically the value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" as displayed at 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date. Any updates

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Trump approval rating on October 16?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 17, 2026 (4 days left)
**Time Pressure:** High

**Description:** This market will resolve according to Donald Trump's approval rating as reported by RealClearPolling at 5:00 PM ET on October 16, 2026.

This market's resolution source will be RealClearPolling's presidential job approval poll average, https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating, specifically the value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" as displayed at 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date. Any updates 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to Donald Trump's approval rating as reported by RealClearPolling at 5:00 PM ET on October 16, 2026.

This market's resolution source will be RealClearPolling's presidential job approval poll average, https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/app"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $769
* **Total Liquidity:** $4.1K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.19)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Trump's approval rating be less than 36.8 on October 16, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 17, 2026): Vol $251
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Trump's approval rating be between 36.8 and 36.9 on October 16, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 17, 2026): Vol $13
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Trump's approval rating be between 37.0 and 37.1 on October 16, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 17, 2026): Vol $13
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Trump's approval rating be between 37.2 and 37.3 on October 16, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 17, 2026): Vol $100
  DATA: [Yes: 19.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Trump's approval rating be between 37.4 and 37.5 on October 16, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 17, 2026): Vol $46
  DATA: [Yes: 19.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Trump's approval rating be between 37.6 and 37.7 on October 16, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 17, 2026): Vol $166
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Trump's approval rating be between 37.8 and 37.9 on October 16, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 17, 2026): Vol $13
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Trump's approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.1 on October 16, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 17, 2026): Vol $17
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Trump's approval rating be between 38.2 and 38.3 on October 16, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 17, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Trump's approval rating be at least 38.4 on October 16, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 17, 2026): Vol $152
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics