Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETEconomy

USD x Iranian rials End of December?

Name: USD x Iranian rials End of December?
End: 2026-12-31T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$106.11K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

USD x Iranian rials End of December?

Vol

$106.11K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $106.11K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $106.11K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will USD be between 2.5M and 3.0M Iranian rials on December 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will USD be between 2.5M and 3.0M Iranian rials on December 31?	Poly	26%
Will USD be between 3.0M and 3.5M Iranian rials on December 31?	Poly	21%
Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.5M Iranian rials on December 31?	Poly	17%
Will USD be between 3.5M and 4.0M Iranian rials on December 31?	Poly	13%
Will USD be less than 2.0M Iranian rials on December 31?	Poly	12%
Will USD be at least 4.0M Iranian rials on December 31?	Poly	7%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

26%

Top Probability

$106.11K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast for December 31, 2026. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. This market will resolve according to the finalized free-market USD exchange rate for the specified date as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR). A daily figure will be consi

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** USD x Iranian rials End of December?
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (81 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast for December 31, 2026.

If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

This market will resolve according to the finalized free-market USD exchange rate for the specified date as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR).

A daily figure will be consi

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast for December 31, 2026.

If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

This market will resolve according to the finalized free-market USD exchange rate for the"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $106.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $103.8K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.02)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will USD be less than 2.0M Iranian rials on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $25.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.5M Iranian rials on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $23.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will USD be between 2.5M and 3.0M Iranian rials on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $19.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 25.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will USD be between 3.0M and 3.5M Iranian rials on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $19.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will USD be between 3.5M and 4.0M Iranian rials on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $10.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.9% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will USD be at least 4.0M Iranian rials on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $7.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.3% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETEconomy