Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The supplied contract family asks whether the Pyth security yield for the 7-Year U.S. Treasury Note will be above a stated strike at 6:00am ET on October 19, 2026. The rules specify that "If the Pyth security yield for the 7-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above X at Oct 19, 2026 at 6:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes" [1]. Settlement uses "the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time," rounded to five decimal places, and "Other sources and stale or carried-forward values cannot substitute" [1]. Each strike is a separate contract with its own wording, so the yes and no prices belong only to that strike.

Reading the snapshot

The market data was observed at 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z and retrieved at 2026-10-19T10:00:21.852Z [1]. These are provider and retrieval timestamps for this record only. They do not show the current price, the price at settlement, or the outcome.

The sample includes 12 of 17 markets from one Kalshi event. Within this sample, the strikes at 4.95%, 4.96%, 4.97%, 4.99%, and 5.00% show yes prices of 0.495 or 0.505, and the 4.98% strike shows 0.50 for both outcomes. The 4.91%, 5.03%, 5.04%, 5.05%, 5.06%, and 5.07% strikes show yes at 0 and no at 1. These snapshot prices are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. Because the sample is partial, the omitted five strikes cannot be assumed to have any particular price. The listed prices also cannot be combined into a single estimate, and no ranking should be read across other events or platforms, since none were supplied.

The contracts share the same underlying event title, but a reader should check each strike's text before comparing. A contract with a lower strike asks a different question than one with a higher strike.

What remains uncertain

The excerpt states "Listed end time: not supplied" [1], while the market records show an endDate of 2026-10-26T14:00:00.000Z [1]. The evidence does not explain this difference, so the field should not be treated as the settlement time. The rules also state that if reliable data is unavailable by expiration, settlement may occur at "the Exchange-determined last fair price, unless a 'No data' strike is listed" [1]. The supplied evidence does not show whether any such fallback applies. Volume data was not supplied, so this snapshot says nothing about liquidity or the number of traders.

References

1. Kalshi: US 7Y Treasury yield at 6:00am ET?. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z.