Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

What will NYC subway average weekday ridership be in October 2026?

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$240.03K

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What will NYC subway average weekday ridership be in October 2026?

Vol

$240.03K

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

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Kalshi

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Volume DistributionTotal: $240.03K

100%

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5 markets tracked

Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4100000 in October 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4100000 in October 2026?	Kalshi	98%
Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4200000 in October 2026?	Kalshi	96%
Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4300000 in October 2026?	Kalshi	71%
Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4400000 in October 2026?	Kalshi	17%
Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4500000 in October 2026?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

98%

Top Probability

$240.03K

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About This Event

in October 2026 If NYC subway average weekday ridership, the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included, as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series is above X million in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** What will NYC subway average weekday ridership be in October 2026?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** in October 2026

If NYC subway average weekday ridership, the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included, as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series is above X million in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series is above 4.5 million in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $240.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4500000 in October 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 8, 2027): Vol $104.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4400000 in October 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 8, 2027): Vol $33.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4300000 in October 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 8, 2027): Vol $20.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 71.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4200000 in October 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 8, 2027): Vol $46.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 95.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4100000 in October 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 8, 2027): Vol $35.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 97.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

What will NYC subway average weekday ridership be in October 2026?

Volume$240.03K

Markets5

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KALSHI

Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4100000 in October 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.5¢No 2.5¢

KALSHITech

Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4100000 in October 2026?

If NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series is above 4.1 million in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4200000 in October 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 95.5¢No 4.5¢

KALSHITech

Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4200000 in October 2026?

If NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series is above 4.2 million in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4300000 in October 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 71.0¢No 29.0¢

KALSHITech

Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4300000 in October 2026?

If NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series is above 4.3 million in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4400000 in October 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 16.5¢No 83.5¢

KALSHITech

Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4400000 in October 2026?

If NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series is above 4.4 million in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4500000 in October 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 2.5¢No 97.5¢

KALSHITech

Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4500000 in October 2026?

If NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series is above 4.5 million in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

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57¢

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What will NYC subway average weekday ridership be in October 2026?

What will NYC subway average weekday ridership be in October 2026?

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Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4100000 in October 2026?

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

What will NYC subway average weekday ridership be in October 2026?

Markets (5)

Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4100000 in October 2026?

Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4100000 in October 2026?

Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4200000 in October 2026?

Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4200000 in October 2026?

Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4300000 in October 2026?

Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4300000 in October 2026?

Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4400000 in October 2026?

Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4400000 in October 2026?

Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4500000 in October 2026?

Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4500000 in October 2026?

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Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4100000 in October 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

What will NYC subway average weekday ridership be in October 2026?

Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4100000 in October 2026?

Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4100000 in October 2026?

Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4200000 in October 2026?

Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4200000 in October 2026?

Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4300000 in October 2026?

Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4300000 in October 2026?

Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4400000 in October 2026?

Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4400000 in October 2026?

Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4500000 in October 2026?

Will NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series be above 4500000 in October 2026?

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