Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This contract covers a single event, "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET," listed on Polymarket [1]. The source states that the market "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"." [1]

The resolution source is the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules say the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets." [1] Other Bitcoin prices or exchanges therefore do not determine this contract, even if they look similar.

The listed end time is 2026-10-20T06:00:00.000Z [1]. The rules describe this as the listed end time, not an announced resolution event, and the evidence does not show the actual resolution.

Reading the snapshot

The saved provider observation is dated 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z, and the evidence was retrieved at 2026-10-19T06:09:05.693Z [1]. These are different times: the price was observed before the evidence was retrieved. Neither time is a live quote.

At observation, the saved prices were 0.505 for "Up" and 0.495 for "Down" [1]. The provider status was active [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The two prices are a single observation of this one contract. They should not be read as a measured forecast or as evidence of how many traders hold either view.

The sample covers one market from one platform. The coverage record shows one total market, one included market, and no partial sample [1]. Because this sample is complete for the saved event, no outcome is omitted from it. The evidence does not show whether other related contracts exist on other platforms or with other time windows, so comparisons with different contracts should be made carefully.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not include trading volume, liquidity, or the time at which the prices last changed. Volume is not a measure of liquidity or trader numbers, and the snapshot cannot show whether the displayed prices could be traded at the same level.

The evidence also does not explain any price movement. Because the contract's TWAP window and listed end time differ from other Bitcoin price markets, readers should compare rules before comparing prices. A difference in quoted prices between contracts with different wording or close times is not, by itself, an arbitrage opportunity.

References

1. Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z.