Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Which Senate races will be within 1 point?

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$4.36K

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Which Senate races will be within 1 point?

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$4.36K

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $4.36K

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12 markets tracked

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Kansas be decided by 1 percentage point or less?

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Single-Platform Markets(12)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Kansas be decided by 1 percentage point or less?	Kalshi	23%
Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Iowa be decided by 1 percentage point or less?	Kalshi	18%
Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Texas be decided by 1 percentage point or less?	Kalshi	17%
Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Alaska be decided by 1 percentage point or less?	Kalshi	16%
Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Michigan be decided by 1 percentage point or less?	Kalshi	16%
Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Maine be decided by 1 percentage point or less?	Kalshi	15%
Will the 2026 U.S. Senate special election in Ohio be decided by 1 percentage point or less?	Kalshi	13%
Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Nebraska be decided by 1 percentage point or less?	Kalshi	13%
Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in South Carolina be decided by 1 percentage point or less?	Kalshi	11%
Will the 2026 U.S. Senate special election in Florida be decided by 1 percentage point or less?	Kalshi	8%
Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in New Hampshire be decided by 1 percentage point or less?	Kalshi	8%
Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in North Carolina be decided by 1 percentage point or less?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

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23%

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$4.36K

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About This Event

Nov 3, 2026 If the margin of victory for the election winner in the 2026 U.S. Senate general election X falls within 0 to 1 percentage points, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin is the difference between the winner's vote share and the second-place finisher's vote share, measured in percentage points. Zero indicates a tie. Certified official results are used, subject to the contract's Fully-Conducted Elections and accelerated-resolution provisions. For rank

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which Senate races will be within 1 point?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Nov 3, 2026

If the margin of victory for the election winner in the 2026 U.S. Senate general election X falls within 0 to 1 percentage points, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin is the difference between the winner's vote share and the second-place finisher's vote share, measured in percentage points. Zero indicates a tie. Certified official results are used, subject to the contract's Fully-Conducted Elections and accelerated-resolution provisions. For rank

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the margin of victory for the election winner in the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Texas falls within 0 to 1 percentage points, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin is the difference between the winner's vote share and the second-place f"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $4.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Texas be decided by 1 percentage point or less?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $26
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in South Carolina be decided by 1 percentage point or less?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $76
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the 2026 U.S. Senate special election in Ohio be decided by 1 percentage point or less?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $320
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in New Hampshire be decided by 1 percentage point or less?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $91
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Nebraska be decided by 1 percentage point or less?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $195
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in North Carolina be decided by 1 percentage point or less?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Michigan be decided by 1 percentage point or less?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Maine be decided by 1 percentage point or less?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $364
  DATA: [Yes: 15.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Kansas be decided by 1 percentage point or less?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $410
  DATA: [Yes: 23.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Iowa be decided by 1 percentage point or less?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $490
  DATA: [Yes: 18.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the 2026 U.S. Senate special election in Florida be decided by 1 percentage point or less?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $547
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Alaska be decided by 1 percentage point or less?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $47
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Which Senate races will be within 1 point?

Volume$4.36K

Markets12

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KALSHI

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Kansas be decided by 1 percentage point or less?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 23.0¢No 77.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Kansas be decided by 1 percentage point or less?

If the margin of victory for the election winner in the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Kansas falls within 0 to 1 percentage points, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin is the difference between the winner's vote share and the second-place

KALSHI

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Iowa be decided by 1 percentage point or less?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 18.0¢No 82.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Iowa be decided by 1 percentage point or less?

If the margin of victory for the election winner in the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Iowa falls within 0 to 1 percentage points, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin is the difference between the winner's vote share and the second-place fi

KALSHI

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Texas be decided by 1 percentage point or less?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 17.0¢No 83.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Texas be decided by 1 percentage point or less?

If the margin of victory for the election winner in the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Texas falls within 0 to 1 percentage points, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin is the difference between the winner's vote share and the second-place f

KALSHI

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Alaska be decided by 1 percentage point or less?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 16.5¢No 83.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Alaska be decided by 1 percentage point or less?

If the margin of victory for the election winner in the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Alaska falls within 0 to 1 percentage points, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin is the difference between the winner's vote share and the second-place

KALSHI

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Michigan be decided by 1 percentage point or less?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 15.5¢No 84.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Michigan be decided by 1 percentage point or less?

If the margin of victory for the election winner in the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Michigan falls within 0 to 1 percentage points, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin is the difference between the winner's vote share and the second-plac

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Which Senate races will be within 1 point?

Which Senate races will be within 1 point?

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Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Kansas be decided by 1 percentage point or less?

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Events (1)

Which Senate races will be within 1 point?

Markets (12)

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Kansas be decided by 1 percentage point or less?

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Kansas be decided by 1 percentage point or less?

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Iowa be decided by 1 percentage point or less?

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Iowa be decided by 1 percentage point or less?

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Texas be decided by 1 percentage point or less?

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Texas be decided by 1 percentage point or less?

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Alaska be decided by 1 percentage point or less?

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Alaska be decided by 1 percentage point or less?

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Michigan be decided by 1 percentage point or less?

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Michigan be decided by 1 percentage point or less?

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Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Kansas be decided by 1 percentage point or less?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Which Senate races will be within 1 point?

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Kansas be decided by 1 percentage point or less?

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Kansas be decided by 1 percentage point or less?

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Iowa be decided by 1 percentage point or less?

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Iowa be decided by 1 percentage point or less?

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Texas be decided by 1 percentage point or less?

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Texas be decided by 1 percentage point or less?

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Alaska be decided by 1 percentage point or less?

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Alaska be decided by 1 percentage point or less?

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Michigan be decided by 1 percentage point or less?

Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Michigan be decided by 1 percentage point or less?

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