Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The market asks whether Dalton Eatherly, known as Chud the Builder, will be convicted. The source describes him as having been "charged with Attempted Murder, among other charges by The State of Tennessee" [1]. The contract "will resolve to "Yes" if Dalton Eatherly is convicted of any criminal offense" in the named Tennessee case by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET [1].

The wording sets several conditions. A plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any outcome with no court judgment resolves to "No" [1]. A mistrial keeps the market open for further retrials until the resolution date [1]. The market "will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case," and appeals have no bearing on it [1]. Readers comparing this contract with a similar one elsewhere should check these conditions, because a different close time or different treatment of pleas and mistrials would change what each price means.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observation time is 2026-10-16T00:00:06Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-16T01:28:51Z [1]. These timestamps describe a saved record. They do not establish the market's status at the moment you read this. In the snapshot, the "Yes" price is 0.435 and the "No" price is 0.565 [1].

These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The listed end time is 2027-08-01T03:59:00Z, which corresponds to the July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET deadline in the rules [1].

The sample contains one market from one provider event. The coverage record reports one total market, one included market, and no partial sample [1]. Because only this binary contract is present, no other outcome is being omitted from the comparison. The sample warning still applies: it covers saved markets only and does not establish that every possible real-world outcome is listed [1]. Volume is not included in the evidence, so nothing can be said about liquidity.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not include a court schedule, hearing date, trial date, or judgment, so it cannot say whether or when a conviction might occur. It also does not explain why the saved prices sit where they do. The excerpt refers to a local news article about the charges, but the evidence contains no content from that article beyond the excerpt itself [1].

A price in this snapshot is one recorded observation under specific contract terms. It is not a forecast with a demonstrated track record, and it does not show that another platform's similar contract is mispriced.

References

1. Polymarket: Chud the Builder convicted?. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z.