$262.42K
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4
$262.42K
1
4
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for February 2026 versus the data points available for all other Februaries on record. Note: If February 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Feb" (https://data.g
Prediction markets currently give a 93% chance that February 2026 will not be one of the three hottest Februaries ever recorded. In simpler terms, traders believe it is very likely—roughly a 9 in 10 chance—that the month will rank fourth or lower on the historical temperature list. This shows high confidence that while the month will probably be warm, it will not break into the top tier of record heat.
Two main factors are shaping this forecast. First, the baseline for "record heat" is now exceptionally high. The past ten years have consistently featured the hottest global temperatures ever measured. February 2023 currently holds the record, and recent years like 2024 and 2025 have also been near the top. To break into the top three, February 2026 wouldn't just need to be warm, it would need to be warmer than almost every February in this already record-hot decade.
Second, the primary driver of recent extreme heat has been a strong El Niño climate pattern, which temporarily boosts global temperatures. The major El Niño that peaked in late 2023 has faded. Forecasts for early 2026 suggest neutral conditions or even a potential La Niña, which typically has a slight cooling effect. Without a strong El Niño adding extra heat, the market sees it as difficult for February 2026 to reach those highest-record tiers.
The main event is the data release itself. NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will publish the official global temperature anomaly for February 2026 in mid-March 2026. This analysis will compare the month’s average temperature to a historical baseline.
In the months before, watch for monthly temperature reports. If late 2025 and January 2026 show persistently shocking high temperatures, the market’s high odds could shift. Also, updates from climate agencies on the development of El Niño or La Niña through late 2025 will be important. A surprise return to strong El Niño conditions would be the most likely reason for the current prediction to change.
Prediction markets have a solid track record on near-term climate questions like this, often performing similarly to expert forecasts. They effectively aggregate many views on known climate factors, like ocean patterns. Their main limitation is the unexpected. These odds don’t account for a major volcanic eruption that could cool the planet, nor do they fully price in unknown climate feedbacks that could accelerate warming. The forecast is a strong consensus on the most probable outcome based on current information, but the climate system can still deliver surprises.
Prediction markets assign a 93% probability that February 2026 will rank as the 4th hottest February or lower on record. This price, trading at 93¢ for "Yes" on Polymarket, indicates near-certainty among traders. With only a 7% implied chance for a top-three finish, the consensus is overwhelming that the month will not be historically extreme. The market has attracted $260,000 in volume, providing solid liquidity for a climate-based contract.
The pricing directly reflects established climate patterns and recent data. The primary driver is the expected transition from a strong El Niño to a neutral or La Niña phase by early 2026. El Niño events, like the one peaking in 2023-2024, temporarily boost global temperatures. Historical records from NASA's GISTEMP index show that the hottest months typically cluster during or immediately following strong El Niño periods. By February 2026, the warming influence of the current El Niño will have substantially faded. The baseline trend of anthropogenic global warming remains, but the market judges it insufficient to propel the month into the top three without the extra boost from a major El Niño.
The 93% probability leaves little room for surprise, but a drastic shift would require an unforeseen climate anomaly. A sudden, unprecedented acceleration in the rate of ocean warming or a failed transition to La Niña, resulting in a persistent or renewed El Niño, could challenge the forecast. The market will closely monitor monthly temperature anomalies throughout 2025. If the second half of 2025 shows consistently record-breaking heat that defies the expected ENSO cooling, traders might reassess the odds for February 2026. The resolution in just 9 days, on March 10, 2026, means all decisive data will be from the month itself, limiting the impact of long-term forecasts.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on whether February 2026 will rank among the three warmest Februaries ever recorded globally. It resolves based on NASA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index (L-OTI), specifically the February anomaly data measured in hundredths of a degree Celsius. The index compares the average global temperature for a given month against a baseline period, typically 1951-1980. If February 2026 ties for first, second, or third place with another year, it qualifies for that respective bracket. This market directly tracks the progression of global climate change through monthly temperature anomalies. Recent years have seen numerous monthly and annual temperature records broken, with 2023 becoming the warmest year on record and early 2024 continuing that trend. Interest in this market stems from its function as a measurable indicator of climate trends, the economic and scientific implications of record warmth, and public awareness of climate data. Scientists, policymakers, and financial analysts monitor these records to assess the pace of warming and validate climate model projections.
Systematic global temperature recording began in the late 19th century, with NASA's modern dataset extending back to 1880. The concept of comparing monthly temperatures to a historical baseline emerged in the 1970s as scientists sought to quantify global warming. February temperature records show a clear warming trend, with the ten warmest Februaries all occurring since 1998 according to NASA data. The current record for warmest February was set in 2016 during a strong El Niño event, with a temperature anomaly of 1.34°C above the 1951-1980 baseline. That record stood until 2020, when February reached 1.17°C above baseline, though 2016 remains the warmest. The year 2023 saw the second-warmest February on record at the time, continuing a pattern where recent years frequently appear in the top rankings. Before 2016, the warmest February occurred in 1998, another El Niño year, demonstrating how natural climate variability interacts with long-term warming trends. The increasing frequency of record-warm months reflects the accelerated pace of global climate change observed since the 1970s.
Monthly temperature records serve as real-time indicators of climate change progression, influencing international climate policy negotiations and national emissions reduction targets. When records are broken consistently, it pressures governments to accelerate climate action and provides evidence for legal cases seeking stronger environmental regulations. Economically, unusual warmth affects agriculture through changing growing seasons, impacts energy demand by reducing heating needs in winter, and influences insurance models that price climate risk. Extreme weather events linked to warmer temperatures, such as intensified winter storms or early spring conditions, can cause billions in damages. For scientists, consecutive record-warm months validate climate model projections and help refine predictions of future warming. Public perception of climate change often responds to tangible records, making monthly temperature rankings a communication tool for scientists and journalists. Industries from tourism to construction adjust plans based on warming trends, while public health officials monitor temperature-related health impacts.
As of early 2024, February 2024 provisionally set a new monthly temperature record according to NASA's preliminary data, measuring 1.40°C above the baseline. This development, if confirmed in final calculations, would make 2024 the year to beat for February 2026. The strong El Niño event that developed in 2023 peaked in December 2023 and is gradually weakening, but its residual warmth continues to influence global temperatures. Climate models project above-average temperatures through 2024 and likely into 2025, though the specific conditions for February 2026 remain uncertain. Scientists are monitoring whether the current record warmth represents a temporary spike or an acceleration of the long-term warming trend.
NASA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index (L-OTI) measures the change in global surface temperature relative to a 1951-1980 baseline. It combines land surface air temperatures and sea surface temperatures from thousands of weather stations, ships, and buoys worldwide, providing a consistent metric for tracking global warming since 1880.
El Niño events, characterized by warm Pacific Ocean waters, typically increase global temperatures by 0.1-0.2°C. The record-warm February 2016 occurred during a strong El Niño. The phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation during late 2025 and early 2026 will significantly influence whether February 2026 challenges temperature records.
NASA selected 1951-1980 as the baseline because it represents a stable climate period before accelerated warming from greenhouse gases became dominant. This 30-year span provides sufficient data for statistical reliability and aligns with the period when global temperature monitoring became more comprehensive and standardized.
NASA's dataset shows strong agreement with independent records from NOAA, Berkeley Earth, and the Copernicus Climate Change Service. While methodological differences cause minor variations, all major datasets show the same long-term warming trend and generally agree on which months and years set records.
The coldest February in NASA's records occurred in 1893, with a temperature anomaly of -0.92°C below the 1951-1980 baseline. This was during the late 19th century period of cooler global temperatures before significant industrial greenhouse gas emissions.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
4 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 95% |
| Poly | 4% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
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