What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting

Prediction markets tracking this question suggest a major change to US vaccine policy is considered unlikely. Across six related markets on Kalshi, traders collectively see only a small chance that the CDC will completely stop recommending any common vaccine before 2027. The most active question focuses on the Hepatitis B vaccine, where the current price implies about a 1 in 6 chance. In simple terms, market participants believe it's probable that the CDC's official recommendations for all major vaccines will remain in place through 2026.

Why the Market Sees It This Way

The low probability stems from the history and purpose of CDC vaccine recommendations. These guidelines are the foundation of public health policy and routine immunization schedules. They are not changed lightly. For a vaccine like Hepatitis B, which is given at birth and has been a standard part of childhood schedules for decades, the evidence for its benefit is very strong. It prevents a serious liver infection.

The process to remove a recommendation would require overwhelming new evidence that the vaccine is no longer needed or that its risks outweigh its benefits. Such a reversal is rare. A more common path is for recommendations to be refined, like adjusting the age groups or number of doses. The market's rules specify that only a complete end to a recommendation counts, making a "Yes" outcome even less likely.

Key Dates and Events to Watch

The main events to watch are the annual meetings of the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP). This independent panel reviews data and proposes changes to the vaccine schedule. Their meetings, typically held in February, June, and October, are where major policy shifts would first be publicly debated.

Any significant new scientific study questioning the safety or necessity of a long-standing vaccine could shift predictions. However, for a change as substantial as dropping a recommendation entirely, we would likely see a long, visible debate play out across multiple ACIP meetings before a final vote.

How Reliable Are These Predictions?

Prediction markets are generally good at aggregating expert knowledge on policy timelines and bureaucratic processes. For niche questions like this with lower trading volume, the odds can be more sensitive to new information but may also be less precise. Markets have a solid track record on yes/no regulatory outcomes, but their accuracy depends on the clarity of the event. In this case, the rule is very specific, which helps. The main limitation is that truly unexpected, rapid scientific developments are hard for any forecasting method to price in ahead of time.