How high will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026?
K 2.6K contracts
1
30
How high will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026?
K 2.6K contracts
1
30
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 13, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is 5.06% or above at 99.5%.
Kalshi
- 5.06% or above99.5%
- 5.1% or above97.5%
- 5.09% or above97.5%
- 5.08% or above97.5%
- 5.07% or above97.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 2.6K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
30
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 13, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
By Nov 30, 2026 If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is above X on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved This market covers the period between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period. If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-13T06:00:06.156Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Kalshi event asks whether the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will be above a stated threshold on any business day from November 1 to November 30, 2026 [1]. Resolution uses only the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year tenor, as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in the period. Intraday values are not considered, and revisions made after expiration are not accounted for [1]. If the threshold is met, the market may expire early under Rule 7.2. Otherwise, it expires at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period [1].
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-11-13T06:00:06.156Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-11-13T07:52:40.876Z [1]. These are earlier observations, not live quotes, executable prices, or verified probabilities. The sample includes 12 of 30 markets for this event, selected by Yes price, so the other 18 markets are not described here [1].
Among the included markets, the Yes prices are 0.995 for the threshold of 5.05%, 0.975 for thresholds from 5.06% to 5.09%, 0.79 at 5.10%, 0.74 at 5.11%, 0.70 at 5.12%, 0.65 at 5.13%, 0.60 at 5.14%, 0.55 at 5.15%, and 0.525 at 5.16% [1]. In each row, the No price is the complement of the Yes price.
The wording of the contract matters for comparison. Each market uses the same published daily Treasury measure, so the thresholds are directly comparable within this event. The market records list an end date of 2026-12-02T06:05:00.000Z. However, the source excerpt says the listed end time was not supplied, and the rule text specifies expiration at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the period ends [1]. Readers should rely on the rule text rather than treating that timestamp as a confirmed close.
What remains uncertain
Only one provider event is supplied, so this analysis does not compare prices across platforms or events. The evidence does not explain why prices are where they are, and it contains no trader counts, volume, or news. Because the sample is partial, the full set of thresholds is not known. Whether any threshold resolves Yes depends on the published daily values during November, which are not included in the supplied evidence [1]. The snapshot does not show prices after its observation time.
References
- Kalshi: How high will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-11-13T06:00:06.156Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 13, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract asks whether the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will rise above a set threshold during a defined window. The listed event is titled "How high will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026?" [1]. Under the contract rules, the market resolves to Yes if the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is above the threshold X on any business day from Nov 1, 2026 through Nov 30, 2026 [1]. The measurement source is specific. Resolution relies only on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year tenor, as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in the period [1]. Intraday values are not considered [1]. Later revisions to the underlying data are not accounted for in determining the expiration value [1]. A single qualifying business day is enough, so the question concerns the highest daily published value in the window rather than a closing level on a specific date [1]. Timing rules are separate from the measurement window. If the threshold is met, the market may expire early under Rule 7.2 of the contract rules [1]. Otherwise, the rules say the market expires at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period [1]. If an expiration value cannot be determined, the contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the rulebook [1]. The provider's listed end time was not supplied [1]. The market data includes a field showing an end date of Dec 2, 2026 at 06:05 UTC. That field is a provider data value and is not an announced event date. The rule text describes the expiration timing differently, so readers should rely on the contract rules for how the market settles.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the published daily par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury reaches a level above a chosen threshold at any point in November 2026 [1]. Because the test uses published daily values rather than intraday trading, the outcome depends on the official daily series and its rules, not on prices seen during the day [1]. The market snapshot shows Yes prices for a set of thresholds from 5.05% to 5.16% in the partial sample of 12 contracts drawn from 30 available for this event. Those prices are snapshots from the provider and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The sample covers only the thresholds included in the saved provider event, and it does not show every threshold listed for this event.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-13 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does a yield that trades above the threshold during the day count?
No. The rules state that intraday values are not considered, and resolution depends on the daily published par yield for each business day in the window [1].
What happens if the threshold is met before the window ends?
The market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2 of the contract rules [1].
Are later revisions to the Treasury data included?
No. Revisions made to the underlying data after expiration are not accounted for in determining the expiration value [1].
Do the listed prices show the chance that the yield will reach a threshold?
Not in a verified sense. The prices are provider snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and they describe only the thresholds included in the saved sample.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
