Snapshot observed 2026-11-06T12:00:06.153Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The Kalshi event asks whether the daily published par yield for the 5-year U.S. Treasury will be above a stated threshold on any business day from November 1 to November 30, 2026 [1]. Each market in this sample uses a different threshold, so the Yes prices are not measuring the same event. Resolution relies only on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 5-year generic constant-maturity tenor, and "intraday values are not considered" [1]. Revisions made after expiration are not counted [1].

The rules also set the timing. If the threshold is met, the market "may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2." Otherwise, it expires "at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period" [1]. The market records list an end date of December 1, 2026 at 15:00 UTC, but the source states "Listed end time: not supplied," so the rulebook text is the governing description of expiration [1].

Reading the snapshot

The prices were observed at 12:00 UTC on November 6, 2026, and retrieved later that day [1]. They are a record of that observation, not a current quote. Prices are not executable and should not be read as verified probabilities.

The sample includes 12 of 30 markets in this event, so it is a partial sample [1]. The included markets were ranked by Yes price, highest first. Among them, the 4.85% threshold shows a Yes price of 0.295, the 4.90% threshold 0.225, and the 4.95% threshold 0.14. The 5.02% threshold also shows 0.14, which is a different threshold at the same listed price [1]. Yes prices generally fall as the threshold rises, which is what the rule structure would lead a reader to expect, but the sample does not show the omitted 18 markets, and no conclusion should be drawn about them.

Volume is not included in this interpretation. It does not indicate liquidity or the number of traders.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not explain why any price was at its observed level, and it does not show recent market developments. It also does not establish how the observed prices compare with later prices. Because each threshold is a separate contract, differences between them should not be treated as arbitrage opportunities without checking the terms, timing, and executable prices of each market. The source does not indicate whether any threshold will be met, and the sample provides no basis for forecasting the outcome.

References

1. Kalshi: How high will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Nov 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-11-06T12:00:06.153Z.