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Events
GroupKALSHI

How many candidates will win a 2028 Democratic primary?

How many candidates will win a 2028 Democratic primary?
Vol

K 0.02 contracts

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Events

1

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Markets

5

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is At least 2 at 97.5%.

Kalshi

  1. At least 297.5%
  2. At least 360.5%
  3. At least 430.5%
  4. At least 513.5%
  5. At least 64.5%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

K 0.02 contracts

Reported volume · provider units

5

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC

About This Event

Before Sep 1, 2028 If the number of different people who win a 2028 Democratic presidential primary or caucus in a U.S. state or D.C. is at least X by Aug 31, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. X person qualifies by winning the 2028 Democratic presidential nominating contest of a U.S. state or Washington, D.C. held before Sep 1, 2028. Each contest is the statewide primary or caucus that allocates the most Democratic national convention delegates from that state, the earlier one if two allocate the same number. For New Hampshire, it is the Democratic presidential primary conducted by the New Hampshire Secretary of State, whether or not the Democratic National Committee recognizes it or awards delegates on it. For Iowa, it is the first statewide presidential preference vote the Iowa Democratic Party conducts for the 2028 nomination that reports a statewide count of votes for candidates, a caucus, a party-run primary or a mail-in preference vote, whether or not the Democratic National Committee recognizes it or seats its delegates. The winner of a contest is the candidate with the most votes in its final round of counting, not delegates or state delegate equivalents. If two or more candidates tie for the most votes, each counts as a winner. "Uncommitted" and similar ballot options are not candidates. X contest that is not held by Aug 31, 2028, or reports no statewide vote count, has no winner. Each person counts once however many contests they win. The following do NOT count: X contest in a U.S. territory or by Democrats Abroad A county, congressional district or other sub-state contest

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketKalshiPolitics
South Carolina Democratic presidential primary winner?

South Carolina Democratic presidential primary winner?

PM $41.0K · K 9.8K contracts

Will Jon Ossoff win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?

Kalshi: Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 South Carolina Democratic primary?

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 26.5%Rules differK Yes 25.5%

Will Raphael Warnock win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?

Kalshi: Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 South Carolina Democratic primary?

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 16%Rules differK Yes 9.5%

Will Kamala Harris win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?

Kalshi: Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 South Carolina Democratic primary?

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 11.5%Rules differK Yes 11.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

18 saved comparisonsNext deadline Jan 23, 2028 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Kentucky Democratic presidential primary winner?

Kentucky Democratic presidential primary winner?

K 4.3K contracts
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Kentucky Democratic primary?Yes 26%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Kentucky Democratic primary?Yes 15%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Kentucky Democratic primary?Yes 14.5%
+9 moreNext deadline Nov 7, 2028 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Nevada Democratic presidential primary winner?

Nevada Democratic presidential primary winner?

K 2.2K contracts
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Nevada Democratic primary?Yes 25%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Nevada Democratic primary?Yes 17.5%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Nevada Democratic primary?Yes 12.5%
+9 moreNext deadline Nov 7, 2028 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Alabama Democratic presidential primary winner?

Alabama Democratic presidential primary winner?

K 237.82 contracts
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Alabama Democratic primary?Yes 27%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Alabama Democratic primary?Yes 12.5%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Alabama Democratic primary?Yes 12.5%
+9 moreNext deadline Nov 7, 2028 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Vermont Democratic presidential primary winner?

Vermont Democratic presidential primary winner?

K 226 contracts
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Vermont Democratic primary?Yes 25.5%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Vermont Democratic primary?Yes 18%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Vermont Democratic primary?Yes 12.5%
+9 moreNext deadline Nov 7, 2028 UTC
KalshiPolitics
District of Columbia Democratic presidential primary winner?

District of Columbia Democratic presidential primary winner?

K 25.38 contracts
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 District of Columbia Democratic primary?Yes 26%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 District of Columbia Democratic primary?Yes 14.5%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 District of Columbia Democratic primary?Yes 13.5%
+9 moreNext deadline Nov 7, 2028 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

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Same-question pairs

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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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