South Carolina Democratic presidential primary winner?
PM $41.0K · K 9.8K contracts
2
41
South Carolina Democratic presidential primary winner?
PM $41.0K · K 9.8K contracts
2
41
Polymarket vs Kalshi
Snapshot from
As of Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, Jon Ossoff is priced at 26.5% on Polymarket and 25.5% on Kalshi.
| Outcome (Yes price) | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jon OssoffSame question, fine print differs | 26.5% | 25.5% | 1.0 pts |
| Raphael WarnockSame question, fine print differs | 16% | 9.5% | 6.5 pts |
| Kamala HarrisSame question, fine print differs | 11.5% | 11.5% | 0.0 pts |
| Josh ShapiroSame question, fine print differs | 0.1% | 7% | 6.9 pts |
| Gavin NewsomSame question, fine print differs | 5% | 6.5% | 1.6 pts |
| Rahm EmanuelSame question, fine print differs | 0.3% | 5.5% | 5.3 pts |
| Wes MooreSame question, fine print differs | 3.8% | 5.5% | 1.7 pts |
| Andy BeshearSame question, fine print differs | 0.4% | 4.5% | 4.0 pts |
Yes prices for outcomes an automated review found to ask the same question on both platforms. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $41.0K · K 9.8K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
41
Saved contracts
18
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
SC If X wins the 2028 South Carolina Democratic presidential primary, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. This market resolves on the statewide primary or caucus that allocates the most Democratic national convention delegates from South Carolina, the earlier one if two allocate the same number. The winner is the candidate with the most votes in its final round of counting, and only a projection of that candidate counts toward accelerated determination. "Uncommitted" and similar ballot options are not candidates. If no statewide primary or caucus allocates delegates or reports a statewide vote count, there is no winner. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-11T00:00:06.245Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Kalshi and Polymarket events are both titled around the South Carolina Democratic presidential primary, but their rules are worded differently. Kalshi's contracts resolve to Yes if the named candidate wins the 2028 South Carolina Democratic presidential primary. The market "resolves on the statewide primary or caucus that allocates the most Democratic national convention delegates from South Carolina, the earlier one if two allocate the same number" [1]. Kalshi also states that "'Uncommitted' and similar ballot options are not candidates" [1].
Polymarket's rules instead resolve to "the candidate who wins the most votes in the South Carolina Democratic primary, caucus, or other official process" [2]. It also states that if "the results are not definitively known by August 1, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'" [2]. The listed end time differs: Polymarket shows 2028-01-23T04:59:00.000Z [2], while Kalshi's market end dates show 2028-11-07T10:00:00.000Z [1]. Kalshi's event-level end time is not supplied [1].
Reading the snapshot
The prices were observed at 2026-11-11T00:00:06.245Z and retrieved at 2026-11-11T01:38:17.099Z [1][2]. They describe those moments and are not live quotes. In the Kalshi sample, Yes prices run from 0.22 for Jon Ossoff to 0.025 for several included names [1]. In the Polymarket sample, they run from 0.32 for Ossoff to 0.0055 for Ro Khanna [2].
Same-name comparisons, such as Ossoff at 0.22 on Kalshi and 0.32 on Polymarket, involve different platforms, differing wording, and different listed end times. The gap is therefore not an arbitrage signal, and these figures are not executable prices or verified probabilities. This comparison also does not average the two platforms.
Each source includes only a partial sample: 12 of 21 Kalshi markets and 12 of 20 Polymarket markets, ordered by Yes price [1][2]. Omitted names are not shown, and their prices cannot be inferred to be lower.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not include trading volume, liquidity, trader counts, or explanations for any price movement. It also does not confirm the primary date beyond Polymarket's statement that South Carolina "is expected to hold its Democratic presidential primary for the 2028 presidential election on January 22, 2028" [2]. No outcome is recorded in these sources, so the snapshot cannot show who won or will win.
References
- Kalshi: South Carolina Democratic presidential primary winner?. Provider data observed 2026-11-11T00:00:06.245Z.
- Polymarket: South Carolina Presidential Democratic Primary Winner. Provider data observed 2026-11-11T00:00:06.245Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 11, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
The Kalshi and Polymarket events titled "South Carolina Democratic presidential primary winner?" and "South Carolina Presidential Democratic Primary Winner" are contracts on the Democratic presidential nomination contest in South Carolina for the 2028 election. Each named candidate has a separate Yes or No contract. The Kalshi contract states that if a named candidate wins the 2028 South Carolina Democratic presidential primary, the market resolves to Yes [1]. Polymarket describes its event as a market that resolves to the candidate who wins the most votes in the South Carolina Democratic primary, caucus, or other official process for selecting delegates to the 2028 Democratic Convention [2]. The timing of the contest is not fixed by the contracts. Polymarket says South Carolina is expected to hold its Democratic primary on January 22, 2028 [2]. The Kalshi excerpt does not give a date for the contest. The Wikipedia article on the 2028 Democratic primaries describes the broader process: primaries and caucuses are to select delegates to the 2028 Democratic National Convention, in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, five U.S. territories, and through Democrats Abroad [3]. The two contracts use different resolution language, so they should not be treated as identical. Kalshi resolves on the statewide primary or caucus that allocates the most Democratic national convention delegates from South Carolina, using the earlier one if two allocate the same number [1]. Polymarket resolves based on the official South Carolina Democratic process and states that the final round count controls for caucuses or other multi-round processes [2]. Prices shown for the two events are market snapshots. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. Each event includes only a subset of its listed markets, so the candidates shown are not the full field, and a candidate's absence from the sample does not indicate a price.
Historical Context
Wikipedia's page on the 2016 South Carolina Democratic presidential primary says that the contest took place on February 27 in South Carolina and was the Democratic Party's fourth nominating contest in its series of presidential primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election [4]. That is the only earlier South Carolina contest described in the supplied sources. The 2028 contract timing is separate from that 2016 event.
Why It Matters
The contracts measure which candidate, if any, will be the winner of South Carolina's Democratic presidential primary or equivalent process for 2028. Kalshi defines the winner as the candidate with the most votes in the final round of counting [1]. It also excludes ballot options such as "Uncommitted" from being treated as candidates [1]. Polymarket uses the most valid votes received and says the result must be the first official announcement of complete results from the South Carolina Democratic Party, although an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice [2]. For a reader, the main practical point is that resolution depends on contest-specific rules, not on a general view of the candidate. The two platforms use different end dates and different fallback rules, so their outcomes can diverge in edge cases.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-07 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi and Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a Yes contract on a named candidate mean?
On Kalshi, a Yes contract resolves to Yes if the named candidate wins the 2028 South Carolina Democratic presidential primary [1]. Polymarket's contracts for named candidates resolve on whether that candidate wins the South Carolina Democratic primary, caucus, or other official delegate selection process [2].
Does "Uncommitted" count as a candidate?
No. The Kalshi contract states that "Uncommitted" and similar ballot options are not candidates [1].
What happens if South Carolina does not hold a qualifying contest?
Kalshi states that if no statewide primary or caucus allocates delegates or reports a statewide vote count, there is no winner [1]. Polymarket states that if no 2028 South Carolina primary, caucus, or comparable process takes place, or if results are not definitively known by August 1, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [2].
How are ties handled on Polymarket?
Polymarket says that if two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names [2].
What is accelerated determination on Kalshi?
The Kalshi contract says it is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations projects the winner, and only a projection of the candidate with the most votes in the final round counts toward that determination [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
6
Same-question pairs
18
Largest saved gap: 6.9 percentage points.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
