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Alaska Senate election margin of victory

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Alaska Senate election margin of victory

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Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 0% and 3%?

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Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 0% and 3%?	Kalshi	25%
Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 0% and 3%?	Kalshi	17%
Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 3% and 6%?	Kalshi	12%
Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 3% and 6%?	Kalshi	10%
Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 9% and 12%?	Kalshi	9%
Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 6% and 9%?	Kalshi	8%
Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 6% and 9%?	Kalshi	7%
Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 9% and 12%?	Kalshi	4%
Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be above 12%?	Kalshi	3%
Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be above 12%?	Kalshi	3%

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About This Event

On Jun 2, 2026 If the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election falls within X to Y inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Important information: the margin shall be calculated using the results from the final round of tabulation. "Dan Sullivan" refers to Daniel S. Sullivan, the incumbent Senator. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Alaska Senate election margin of victory
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Jun 2, 2026

If the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election falls within X to Y inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Important information: the margin shall be calculated using the results from the final round of tabulation. "Dan Sullivan" refers to Daniel S. Sullivan, the incumbent Senator. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election falls within 6% to 9%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Important information: the margin shall be calculated using the results from the final "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 6% and 9%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be above 12%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 3% and 6%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 9% and 12%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 0% and 3%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 6% and 9%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be above 12%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 3% and 6%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 9% and 12%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 0% and 3%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Alaska Senate election margin of victory

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KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 0% and 3%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 24.5¢No 75.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 0% and 3%?

If the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election falls within 0% to 3%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Important information: the margin shall be calculated using the results from the final

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 0% and 3%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 17.0¢No 83.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 0% and 3%?

If the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election falls within 0% to 3%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Important information: the margin shall be calculated using the results from the final

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 3% and 6%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 12.0¢No 88.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 3% and 6%?

If the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election falls within 3% to 6%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Important information: the margin shall be calculated using the results from the final

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 3% and 6%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 10.0¢No 90.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 3% and 6%?

If the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election falls within 3% to 6%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Important information: the margin shall be calculated using the results from the final

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 9% and 12%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 8.5¢No 91.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 9% and 12%?

If the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election falls within 9% to 12%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Important information: the margin shall be calculated using the results from the final

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Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 0% and 3%?

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Events (1)

Alaska Senate election margin of victory

Markets (10)

Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 0% and 3%?

Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 0% and 3%?

Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 0% and 3%?

Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 0% and 3%?

Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 3% and 6%?

Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 3% and 6%?

Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 3% and 6%?

Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 3% and 6%?

Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 9% and 12%?

Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 9% and 12%?

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Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 0% and 3%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Alaska Senate election margin of victory

Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 0% and 3%?

Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 0% and 3%?

Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 0% and 3%?

Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 0% and 3%?

Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 3% and 6%?

Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 3% and 6%?

Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 3% and 6%?

Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 3% and 6%?

Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 9% and 12%?

Will the margin of victory for Dan Sullivan in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 9% and 12%?

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