Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

2026 Midterms: House popular vote vs. generic ballot?

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$5.42K

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2026 Midterms: House popular vote vs. generic ballot?

Vol

$5.42K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

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Kalshi

markets · $5.42K

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Volume DistributionTotal: $5.42K

100%

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9 markets tracked

Will the 2026 House popular vote margin be within 0.9 points of the final VoteHub generic ballot margin?

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Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the 2026 House popular vote margin be within 0.9 points of the final VoteHub generic ballot margin?	Kalshi	27%
Will Republicans outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 1 to 2.9 points in the 2026 House popular vote?	Kalshi	16%
Will Democrats outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 1 to 2.9 points in the 2026 House popular vote?	Kalshi	16%
Will Republicans outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 3 to 4.9 points in the 2026 House popular vote?	Kalshi	8%
Will Democrats outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 7 or more points in the 2026 House popular vote?	Kalshi	7%
Will Democrats outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 3 to 4.9 points in the 2026 House popular vote?	Kalshi	7%
Will Democrats outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 5 to 6.9 points in the 2026 House popular vote?	Kalshi	6%
Will Republicans outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 5 to 6.9 points in the 2026 House popular vote?	Kalshi	5%
Will Republicans outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 7 or more points in the 2026 House popular vote?	Kalshi	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

27%

Top Probability

$5.42K

Volume

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About This Event

House popular vote margin minus final VoteHub generic ballot margin If the national House popular vote margin, X − R, minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin, X − R, time-weighted, at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is between Y and Z in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes. The national House popular vote margin is the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidat

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** 2026 Midterms: House popular vote vs. generic ballot?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** House popular vote margin minus final VoteHub generic ballot margin

If the national House popular vote margin, X − R, minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin, X − R, time-weighted, at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is between Y and Z in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes. The national House popular vote margin is the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidat

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is between -0.9 and 0.9 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The national House popular vote "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the 2026 House popular vote margin be within 0.9 points of the final VoteHub generic ballot margin?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2027): Vol $5.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Republicans outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 7 or more points in the 2026 House popular vote?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Republicans outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 5 to 6.9 points in the 2026 House popular vote?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Republicans outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 3 to 4.9 points in the 2026 House popular vote?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Republicans outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 1 to 2.9 points in the 2026 House popular vote?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Democrats outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 7 or more points in the 2026 House popular vote?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Democrats outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 5 to 6.9 points in the 2026 House popular vote?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2027): Vol $105
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Democrats outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 3 to 4.9 points in the 2026 House popular vote?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Democrats outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 1 to 2.9 points in the 2026 House popular vote?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 30, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

2026 Midterms: House popular vote vs. generic ballot?

Volume$5.42K

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KALSHI

Will the 2026 House popular vote margin be within 0.9 points of the final VoteHub generic ballot margin?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 26.5¢No 73.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the 2026 House popular vote margin be within 0.9 points of the final VoteHub generic ballot margin?

If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is between -0.9 and 0.9 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The national House popular vote

KALSHI

Will Republicans outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 1 to 2.9 points in the 2026 House popular vote?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 15.5¢No 84.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Republicans outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 1 to 2.9 points in the 2026 House popular vote?

If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is between -2.9 and -1 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The national House popular vote m

KALSHI

Will Democrats outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 1 to 2.9 points in the 2026 House popular vote?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 15.5¢No 84.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Democrats outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 1 to 2.9 points in the 2026 House popular vote?

If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is between 1 and 2.9 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The national House popular vote mar

KALSHI

Will Republicans outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 3 to 4.9 points in the 2026 House popular vote?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 7.5¢No 92.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Republicans outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 3 to 4.9 points in the 2026 House popular vote?

If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is between -4.9 and -3 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The national House popular vote m

KALSHI

Will Democrats outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 7 or more points in the 2026 House popular vote?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.5¢No 93.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Democrats outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 7 or more points in the 2026 House popular vote?

If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is at least 7 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The national House popular vote margin is

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/wRUx-V" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="2026 Midterms: House popular vote vs. generic ballot?"></iframe>

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2026 Midterms: House popular vote vs. generic ballot?

2026 Midterms: House popular vote vs. generic ballot?

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Will the 2026 House popular vote margin be within 0.9 points of the final VoteHub generic ballot margin?

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Events (1)

2026 Midterms: House popular vote vs. generic ballot?

Markets (9)

Will the 2026 House popular vote margin be within 0.9 points of the final VoteHub generic ballot margin?

Will the 2026 House popular vote margin be within 0.9 points of the final VoteHub generic ballot margin?

Will Republicans outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 1 to 2.9 points in the 2026 House popular vote?

Will Republicans outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 1 to 2.9 points in the 2026 House popular vote?

Will Democrats outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 1 to 2.9 points in the 2026 House popular vote?

Will Democrats outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 1 to 2.9 points in the 2026 House popular vote?

Will Republicans outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 3 to 4.9 points in the 2026 House popular vote?

Will Republicans outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 3 to 4.9 points in the 2026 House popular vote?

Will Democrats outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 7 or more points in the 2026 House popular vote?

Will Democrats outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 7 or more points in the 2026 House popular vote?

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Will the 2026 House popular vote margin be within 0.9 points of the final VoteHub generic ballot margin?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

2026 Midterms: House popular vote vs. generic ballot?

Will the 2026 House popular vote margin be within 0.9 points of the final VoteHub generic ballot margin?

Will the 2026 House popular vote margin be within 0.9 points of the final VoteHub generic ballot margin?

Will Republicans outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 1 to 2.9 points in the 2026 House popular vote?

Will Republicans outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 1 to 2.9 points in the 2026 House popular vote?

Will Democrats outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 1 to 2.9 points in the 2026 House popular vote?

Will Democrats outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 1 to 2.9 points in the 2026 House popular vote?

Will Republicans outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 3 to 4.9 points in the 2026 House popular vote?

Will Republicans outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 3 to 4.9 points in the 2026 House popular vote?

Will Democrats outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 7 or more points in the 2026 House popular vote?

Will Democrats outperform the final VoteHub generic ballot margin by 7 or more points in the 2026 House popular vote?

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