Name: Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by...?
End: 2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z

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Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by...? | PredictPedia

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2 markets tracked

Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?

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Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?	Poly	59%
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by May 31?	Poly	27%

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, May 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by...?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 30, 2026 (46 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** In February 2026, the Pentagon announced it would designate Anthropic as a national security supply chain risk after Anthropic refused to remove AI safety restrictions from its acceptable use policy. Donald Trump subsequently directed all federal agencies to cease using Anthropic's technologies, with a six-month phase-out period for agencies such as the Department of Defense which are actively using Anthropic's products.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Anthropic and the United States Depar

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $31.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $31.0K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.02)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by May 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $9.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 27.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $21.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 59.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 41.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

45d 12h remaining

Jun 30, 2026 12:00 AM

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Average Yes Price

43¢

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Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by...?

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Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?

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Events (1)

Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by...?

Markets (2)

Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?

Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?

Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by May 31?

Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by May 31?

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Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?

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Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by...?

Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?

Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?

Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by May 31?

Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by May 31?

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