C4 Energy Point of Sale Growth in November 2026

Snapshot observed Nov 11, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The Kalshi event "C4 Energy Point of Sale Growth in November 2026" uses a year-over-year index in which "100 means C4 Energy Point of Sale Growth was equal to the same month last year. Values above 100 indicate growth and values below 100 indicate decline" [1]. Each market asks whether the index will be above a stated threshold. The source says the index is "measured by Carbon Arc's point-of-sale receipt panel using in-store and online purchases captured via receipt-scanning and rewards apps, matched to the same period of the prior year" [1].

Resolution uses "finalized Carbon Arc values recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on the 2nd calendar day after the end of the month covered by this market" [1]. For November, that rule points to 11:59 p.m. ET on December 2, 2026. This is a rule-based timing, not an announced event date. The contract also states that it "will close and expire early if the economic data is released" [1].

Reading the snapshot

The saved snapshot was observed at Nov 11, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC and retrieved at Nov 11, 2026, 3:52 PM UTC [1]. It records prices at that observation time. It is not a live quote, an executable price, or a verified probability.

The sample includes all 11 saved markets for this event, and it is not partial [1]. Yes prices by threshold were: 121.5 at 0.965, 124.5 at 0.97, 127.5 at 0.96, 130.5 at 0.845, 133.5 at 0.84, 134.5 at 0.78, 135.5 at 0.675, 137 at 0.205, 138 at 0.17, 139.5 at 0.175, and 142 at 0.085 [1]. In this snapshot, Yes prices stay high through 134.5, fall toward 135.5, and drop sharply by 137. The small difference between 138 and 139.5 is too minor to read as a precise ordering.

Each market lists an endDate of Dec 10, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC [1]. The provider status line, however, says "Listed end time: not supplied" [1]. Readers should check the provider page for the close time, since these fields do not match in wording.

What remains uncertain

The snapshot does not explain why prices are where they are. The evidence contains no volume, depth, or trader count, so liquidity cannot be judged from it. The sample covers only this Kalshi event. The source notes that the sample "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. No index value for November 2026 is supplied, and the outcome is not yet determined.

References

1. Kalshi: C4 Energy Point of Sale Growth in November 2026. Provider data observed Nov 11, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC.