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Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?

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Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?

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9 markets tracked

Will Alnylam Pharmaceuticals be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Alnylam Pharmaceuticals be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?	Kalshi	24%
Will SoFi be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?	Kalshi	19%
Will Reddit be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?	Kalshi	14%
Will Pure Storage be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?	Kalshi	12%
Will Affirm Holdings be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?	Kalshi	10%
Will CoreWeave be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?	Kalshi	5%
Will Toast be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?	Kalshi	3%
Will Strategy (MicroStrategy) be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?	Kalshi	3%
Will SpaceX be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

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24%

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About This Event

Q2 2026 If X is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 during April 1, 2026 to June 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves to Yes if either the index administrator officially announces the membership change OR the change takes effect during the specified time period, whichever occurs first. The effective date of the change need not fall within the time period; only the announcement or implementation must occur within the time period. Temporary suspensions do n

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?
**Category:** Companies | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Q2 2026

If X is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 during April 1, 2026 to June 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves to Yes if either the index administrator officially announces the membership change OR the change takes effect during the specified time period, whichever occurs first. The effective date of the change need not fall within the time period; only the announcement or implementation must occur within the time period. Temporary suspensions do n

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Toast is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 during April 1, 2026 to June 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves to Yes if either the index administrator officially announces the membership change OR the change takes effect during the specifi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Toast be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will SpaceX be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will SoFi be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Reddit be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 14.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Pure Storage be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Strategy (MicroStrategy) be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will CoreWeave be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Alnylam Pharmaceuticals be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 24.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Affirm Holdings be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHICompanies

Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?

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KALSHI

Will Alnylam Pharmaceuticals be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 24.0¢No 76.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will Alnylam Pharmaceuticals be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?

If Alnylam Pharmaceuticals is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 during April 1, 2026 to June 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves to Yes if either the index administrator officially announces the membership change OR the change takes effect

KALSHI

Will SoFi be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 18.5¢No 81.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will SoFi be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?

If SoFi is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 during April 1, 2026 to June 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves to Yes if either the index administrator officially announces the membership change OR the change takes effect during the specifie

KALSHI

Will Reddit be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 14.0¢No 86.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will Reddit be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?

If Reddit is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 during April 1, 2026 to June 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves to Yes if either the index administrator officially announces the membership change OR the change takes effect during the specif

KALSHI

Will Pure Storage be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 12.0¢No 88.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will Pure Storage be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?

If Pure Storage is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 during April 1, 2026 to June 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves to Yes if either the index administrator officially announces the membership change OR the change takes effect during the

KALSHI

Will Affirm Holdings be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 9.5¢No 90.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will Affirm Holdings be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?

If Affirm Holdings is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 during April 1, 2026 to June 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves to Yes if either the index administrator officially announces the membership change OR the change takes effect during t

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Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?

Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?

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Will Alnylam Pharmaceuticals be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?

Markets (9)

Will Alnylam Pharmaceuticals be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?

Will Alnylam Pharmaceuticals be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?

Will SoFi be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?

Will SoFi be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?

Will Reddit be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?

Will Reddit be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?

Will Pure Storage be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?

Will Pure Storage be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?

Will Affirm Holdings be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?

Will Affirm Holdings be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?

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Will Alnylam Pharmaceuticals be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?

Will Alnylam Pharmaceuticals be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?

Will Alnylam Pharmaceuticals be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?

Will SoFi be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?

Will SoFi be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?

Will Reddit be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?

Will Reddit be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?

Will Pure Storage be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?

Will Pure Storage be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?

Will Affirm Holdings be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?

Will Affirm Holdings be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?

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