Lowest temperature in San Antonio on Oct 26, 2026?
K 1.2K contracts
1
6
Lowest temperature in San Antonio on Oct 26, 2026?
K 1.2K contracts
1
6
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 26, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is 61° or above at 97.5%.
Kalshi
- 61° or above97.5%
- 59° to 60°1.5%
- 57° to 58°1%
- 52° or below0.5%
- 55° to 56°0.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 1.2K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
6
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
On Oct 26, 2026 If the minimum temperature recorded at San Antonio, CLISAT, for Oct 26, 2026, is X than Y fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes. Not all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the Weather Company. Reading weather data Preliminary Weather Company data may be subject to rounding and conversion differences from the final reported value. Use caution when interpreting preliminary Weather Company readings. If it is determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange that there is a material error in the initial non-preliminary publication, Expiration may be held until the publication of a non-materially-erroneous data revision or until the Expiration Date, whichever comes first. If no data is available at the end of this period, all markets will resolve to the last fair price determined by Kalshi. Please note, a status of "Final" on weather.com/kalshi is provided for convenience only, and does not guarantee data to be error-free and thus exempt from the above. The Last Trading Time will be 11:59 PM local time on October 26, 2026 regardless of any data releases or events occurring. Expiration will occur on the sooner of the first 7:00 or 8:00 AM ET following the release of the data for October 26, 2026, or one week after October 26, 2026.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-25T18:00:06.091Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This snapshot covers one Kalshi event, "Lowest temperature in San Antonio on Oct 26, 2026?" The rules state that the market resolves to Yes if the minimum temperature recorded at San Antonio, CLISAT, for Oct 26, 2026, is X than Y fahrenheit according to The Weather Company [1]. The excerpt also notes that "the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the Weather Company" [1]. Other weather sites are mentioned only as guidance, not as the resolution source [1].
The rules warn that "Preliminary Weather Company data may be subject to rounding and conversion differences from the final reported value" [1]. Each bucket in this event therefore depends on the Weather Company figure, not on a general forecast.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-25T18:00:06Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-25T19:33:06Z [1]. These are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
The six saved markets, all included in the sample, show these Yes prices: above 60 degrees at 0.60, 59 to 60 degrees at 0.26, 57 to 58 degrees at 0.125, 55 to 56 degrees at 0.045, 53 to 54 degrees at 0.005, and below 53 degrees at 0.005. The Yes prices total about 1.04 in this snapshot, so they do not form a clean probability distribution. The Yes and No prices within each market also do not need to be read as a precise forecast.
The market titles use different boundary wording. "Above 60" and "59-60" both reference 60 degrees, so readers should compare each title's exact text instead of assuming the buckets are mutually exclusive in an obvious way.
What remains uncertain
The listed end time is not supplied in the source excerpt, although each market carries an endDate of 2026-11-02T14:00:00.000Z [1]. The rules instead set a Last Trading Time of 11:59 PM local time on October 26, 2026, and an expiration on the sooner of the first 7:00 or 8:00 AM ET after the data release, or one week after October 26 [1]. These timestamps are not interchangeable.
Only one platform appears here, so no cross-platform comparison is possible. The sample includes all saved markets for this event, but that does not establish that every possible outcome is listed. No information about trading activity, trader counts, or reasons for price changes is supplied.
References
- Kalshi: Lowest temperature in San Antonio on Oct 26, 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-10-25T18:00:06.091Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 25, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Kalshi event that asks about the lowest temperature in San Antonio on October 26, 2026 [1]. The provider's event page describes the contract as a set of temperature-range markets tied to one specific daily minimum. The event was saved with a provider observation time of 2026-10-25T18:00:06Z and a retrieval time of 2026-10-25T19:33:06Z, so the prices described here are a snapshot from that moment and are not a live reading. The contract refers to the city's official weather station identifier, CLISAT, for October 26, 2026 [1]. Background on the city itself comes from general reference material: San Antonio is a city in the southern part of Texas and the county seat of Bexar County [2]. That reference describes the city's population and metropolitan size but does not address weather, the station, or how this contract is settled [2]. Another search result, for San Antonio Oeste, refers to a port city in Argentina and has no bearing on this Texas contract, so it is not used here [3]. The saved event contains six markets, each asking whether the daily minimum falls in a particular band. The bands are above 60 degrees Fahrenheit, 59 to 60, 57 to 58, 55 to 56, 53 to 54, and below 53 [1]. In the snapshot, the Yes price for the above 60 band was 0.60, for 59 to 60 it was 0.26, for 57 to 58 it was 0.125, for 55 to 56 it was 0.045, and the two outer low bands were each 0.005 [1]. These are provider price snapshots. They are not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities. Because all six saved markets for this event are included in the sample, no bands were left out of the snapshot, though the provider notes that this does not prove every possible outcome is listed. Settlement is based on the official value, not on general weather apps. The provider states that the official value is the minimum temperature reported by The Weather Company for the station, and that other forecasting sites are for guidance only [1]. Preliminary Weather Company readings can differ from the final published value because of rounding and unit conversion, so the provider warns about relying on them [1]. The rules also describe how a later data revision or a material error in the initial publication could affect when expiration takes place [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single observable quantity: the minimum temperature recorded at San Antonio's CLISAT station for October 26, 2026, as reported by The Weather Company [1]. Each market turns that one number into a yes or no question about a temperature band. Because the bands cover different ranges, the prices together show how the market-implied distribution of outcomes was priced at the snapshot time, though the prices are not verified probabilities [1]. Traders and readers can use the rules to see exactly what counts as a win, which is the official reported value and not a forecast or a consumer weather app [1]. The rules also set a last trading time of 11:59 PM local time on October 26, 2026, regardless of data releases, and an expiration tied to the release of the data, no later than one week after the date [1]. Those timing details matter because a contract can close before the official figure is published.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-25 at 18:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the contract actually measure?
It measures the minimum temperature recorded at San Antonio's CLISAT station for October 26, 2026, as reported by The Weather Company [1]. Each band market asks whether that minimum falls within its range [1].
Which source determines the outcome?
The official and final value is the minimum temperature as reported by The Weather Company. The rules state that AccuWeather, Google Weather, or similar sites may help with decisions but do not determine the result [1].
Why might a preliminary reading differ from the final value?
The rules say preliminary Weather Company data may be subject to rounding and conversion differences from the final reported value, so caution is advised when reading preliminary figures [1].
When does trading close and when does expiration occur?
The rules set the last trading time at 11:59 PM local time on October 26, 2026, regardless of data releases [1]. Expiration occurs on the sooner of the first 7:00 or 8:00 AM ET after the October 26 data is released, or one week after October 26, 2026 [1].
What happens if the data is delayed or contains an error?
If there is a material error in the initial non-preliminary publication, expiration may be held until a corrected revision is published or until the expiration date, whichever comes first. If no data is available at the end of that period, the rules say all markets resolve to the last fair price determined by Kalshi [1].
Do the prices show the chance that a temperature band will occur?
The saved prices are provider snapshots taken at a specific time. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and the provider's volume figures are not a measure of liquidity or trader count [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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