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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Name: Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$4.29K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Vol

$4.29K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $4.29K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $4.29K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

24 markets tracked

Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(24)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	Poly	45%
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?	Poly	28%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Poly	20%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027?	Poly	18%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027?	Poly	18%
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Poly	17%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?	Poly	14%
Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027?	Poly	13%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	Poly	12%
Will Anthony Albanese be the next leader out before 2027?	Poly	12%
Will Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027?	Poly	12%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the next leader out before 2027?	Poly	11%
Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027?	Poly	11%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?	Poly	9%
Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027?	Poly	7%
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	Poly	7%
Will Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027?	Poly	6%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?	Poly	6%
Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027?	Poly	6%
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?	Poly	6%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?	Poly	6%
Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?	Poly	6%
Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027?	Poly	5%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027?	Poly	5%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

45%

Top Probability

$4.29K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, w

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (174 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, w

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $4.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $32.6K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.13)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $123
  DATA: [Yes: 5.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.3% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $112
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $93
  DATA: [Yes: 6.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.7% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $112
  DATA: [Yes: 6.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.4% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $177
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Anthony Albanese be the next leader out before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $112
  DATA: [Yes: 11.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.2% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $123
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $112
  DATA: [Yes: 11.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.3% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $305
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $323
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $112
  DATA: [Yes: 13.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.3% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $107
  DATA: [Yes: 5.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.6% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $123
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $112
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $112
  DATA: [Yes: 18.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.6% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $150
  DATA: [Yes: 27.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $112
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $112
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $202
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $123
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will no listed leader be out before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $952
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $112
  DATA: [Yes: 12.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.2% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $258
  DATA: [Yes: 45.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.0% (0.0%)]

### 24. Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the next leader out before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $112
  DATA: [Yes: 11.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics