Will Neal Dunn leave Congress before the midterms? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Will Neal Dunn leave Congress before the midterms?

Total Volume

$0.00

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Will Neal Dunn leave Congress before the midterms?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will Neal Dunn leave Congress before the midterms?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Neal Dunn leave Congress before the midterms?	Kalshi	10%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

10%

Top Probability

$0.00

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

before the midterms If Neal Dunn leaves the House before November 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Neal Dunn must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigni

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, April 17, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Neal Dunn leave Congress before the midterms?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** before the midterms

If Neal Dunn leaves the House before November 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Neal Dunn must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. 


If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigni

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Neal Dunn leaves the House before November 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Neal Dunn must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. 


If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contr"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Neal Dunn leave Congress before the midterms?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.4% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

10¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/yV4EVD" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will Neal Dunn leave Congress before the midterms?"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Kalshi

Will Neal Dunn leave Congress before the midterms?

Will Neal Dunn leave Congress before the midterms?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Neal Dunn leave Congress before the midterms?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)