Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Montenegro parliamentary election winner?

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Montenegro parliamentary election winner?

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Will DPS win the next Montenegrin parliamentary election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will DPS win the next Montenegrin parliamentary election?	Kalshi	66%
Will PES win the next Montenegrin parliamentary election?	Kalshi	22%
Will NSD win the next Montenegrin parliamentary election?	Kalshi	9%
Will URA win the next Montenegrin parliamentary election?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

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66%

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About This Event

in 2027 If X wins the next Montenegrin parliamentary election, then the market resolves to Yes. DPS: Any formally registered electoral list containing the Democratic Party of Socialists of Montenegro, DPS. PES: Any formally registered electoral list containing the Europe Now Movement, PES, provided that the list does not contain DPS. NSD: Any formally registered electoral list containing New Serb Democracy, NSD, provided that the list does not contain DPS or PES. URA: Any formally registered el

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Montenegro parliamentary election winner?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** in 2027

If X wins the next Montenegrin parliamentary election, then the market resolves to Yes. DPS: Any formally registered electoral list containing the Democratic Party of Socialists of Montenegro, DPS. PES: Any formally registered electoral list containing the Europe Now Movement, PES, provided that the list does not contain DPS. NSD: Any formally registered electoral list containing New Serb Democracy, NSD, provided that the list does not contain DPS or PES. URA: Any formally registered el

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If URA wins the next Montenegrin parliamentary election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: DPS: Any formally registered electoral list containing the Democratic Party of Socialists of Montenegro (DPS).

PES: Any formally registered electoral list containing the Europe Now Movement (P"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will URA win the next Montenegrin parliamentary election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 12, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will PES win the next Montenegrin parliamentary election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 12, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will NSD win the next Montenegrin parliamentary election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 12, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will DPS win the next Montenegrin parliamentary election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 12, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 66.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 34.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Montenegro parliamentary election winner?

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KALSHI

Will DPS win the next Montenegrin parliamentary election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 66.0¢No 34.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will DPS win the next Montenegrin parliamentary election?

If DPS wins the next Montenegrin parliamentary election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: DPS: Any formally registered electoral list containing the Democratic Party of Socialists of Montenegro (DPS). PES: Any formally registered electoral list containing the Europe Now Movement (P

KALSHI

Will PES win the next Montenegrin parliamentary election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 22.0¢No 78.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will PES win the next Montenegrin parliamentary election?

If PES wins the next Montenegrin parliamentary election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: DPS: Any formally registered electoral list containing the Democratic Party of Socialists of Montenegro (DPS). PES: Any formally registered electoral list containing the Europe Now Movement (P

KALSHI

Will NSD win the next Montenegrin parliamentary election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 9.0¢No 91.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will NSD win the next Montenegrin parliamentary election?

If NSD wins the next Montenegrin parliamentary election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: DPS: Any formally registered electoral list containing the Democratic Party of Socialists of Montenegro (DPS). PES: Any formally registered electoral list containing the Europe Now Movement (P

KALSHI

Will URA win the next Montenegrin parliamentary election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will URA win the next Montenegrin parliamentary election?

If URA wins the next Montenegrin parliamentary election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: DPS: Any formally registered electoral list containing the Democratic Party of Socialists of Montenegro (DPS). PES: Any formally registered electoral list containing the Europe Now Movement (P

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/yXCHqN" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Montenegro parliamentary election winner?"></iframe>

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Montenegro parliamentary election winner?

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Will DPS win the next Montenegrin parliamentary election?

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Events (1)

Montenegro parliamentary election winner?

Markets (4)

Will DPS win the next Montenegrin parliamentary election?

Will DPS win the next Montenegrin parliamentary election?

Will PES win the next Montenegrin parliamentary election?

Will PES win the next Montenegrin parliamentary election?

Will NSD win the next Montenegrin parliamentary election?

Will NSD win the next Montenegrin parliamentary election?

Will URA win the next Montenegrin parliamentary election?

Will URA win the next Montenegrin parliamentary election?

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Will DPS win the next Montenegrin parliamentary election?

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Montenegro parliamentary election winner?

Will DPS win the next Montenegrin parliamentary election?

Will DPS win the next Montenegrin parliamentary election?

Will PES win the next Montenegrin parliamentary election?

Will PES win the next Montenegrin parliamentary election?

Will NSD win the next Montenegrin parliamentary election?

Will NSD win the next Montenegrin parliamentary election?

Will URA win the next Montenegrin parliamentary election?

Will URA win the next Montenegrin parliamentary election?

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