Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

120th Congress: Who will be elected Speaker of the House?

Total Volume

$17.44K

Events

Markets

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120th Congress: Who will be elected Speaker of the House?

Vol

$17.44K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $17.44K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $17.44K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? (Hakeem Jeffries)

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? (Hakeem Jeffries)	Kalshi	83%
Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? (Mike Johnson)	Kalshi	6%
Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? (Pete Aguilar)	Kalshi	3%
Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? (Tom Emmer)	Kalshi	1%
Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? (Steve Scalise)	Kalshi	1%
Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? (Katherine Clark)	Kalshi	1%
Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? (Jim Jordan)	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

83%

Top Probability

$17.44K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

In 2027 If X wins the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** 120th Congress: Who will be elected Speaker of the House?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2027

If X wins the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Tom Emmer wins the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules fo"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $17.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? (Tom Emmer)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 3, 2028): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? (Steve Scalise)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 3, 2028): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? (Pete Aguilar)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 3, 2028): Vol $531
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? (Mike Johnson)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 3, 2028): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? (Hakeem Jeffries)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 3, 2028): Vol $3.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 83.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 17.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? (Katherine Clark)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 3, 2028): Vol $5.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? (Jim Jordan)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 3, 2028): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

120th Congress: Who will be elected Speaker of the House?

Volume$17.44K

Markets7

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KALSHI

Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? (Hakeem Jeffries)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 83.0¢No 17.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? (Hakeem Jeffries)

If Hakeem Jeffries wins the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full ru

KALSHI

Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? (Mike Johnson)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 5.5¢No 94.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? (Mike Johnson)

If Mike Johnson wins the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules

KALSHI

Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? (Pete Aguilar)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.0¢No 97.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? (Pete Aguilar)

If Pete Aguilar wins the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules

KALSHI

Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? (Tom Emmer)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 1.0¢No 99.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? (Tom Emmer)

If Tom Emmer wins the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules fo

KALSHI

Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? (Steve Scalise)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 1.0¢No 99.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? (Steve Scalise)

If Steve Scalise wins the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rule

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14¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/yfi4f3" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="120th Congress: Who will be elected Speaker of the House?"></iframe>

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120th Congress: Who will be elected Speaker of the House?

120th Congress: Who will be elected Speaker of the House?

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Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? (Hakeem Jeffries)

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

120th Congress: Who will be elected Speaker of the House?

Markets (7)

Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? (Hakeem Jeffries)

Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? (Hakeem Jeffries)

Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? (Mike Johnson)

Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? (Mike Johnson)

Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? (Pete Aguilar)

Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? (Pete Aguilar)

Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? (Tom Emmer)

Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? (Tom Emmer)

Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? (Steve Scalise)

Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? (Steve Scalise)

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Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? (Hakeem Jeffries)

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

120th Congress: Who will be elected Speaker of the House?

Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? (Hakeem Jeffries)

Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? (Hakeem Jeffries)

Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? (Mike Johnson)

Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? (Mike Johnson)

Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? (Pete Aguilar)

Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? (Pete Aguilar)

Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? (Tom Emmer)

Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? (Tom Emmer)

Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? (Steve Scalise)

Who will win the election for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the opening of the 120th Congress? (Steve Scalise)

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