How many independents will be elected to Congress in the midterms?
PM $16.7K · K 3.0K contracts
2
7
How many independents will be elected to Congress in the midterms?
PM $16.7K · K 3.0K contracts
2
7
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is 0 at 92.5%, and on Kalshi it is At least 2 at 47.5%.
Polymarket
- 092.5%
- 138%
- 21.5%
Kalshi
- At least 247.5%
- At least 447.5%
- At least 342.5%
- At least 123.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $16.7K · K 3.0K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
7
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress If the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats is at least X in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. X candidate is considered unaffiliated with a political party if the relevant election authority identifies the candidate as Independent, Nonpartisan, No Party Preference, No Party Affiliation, Unaffiliated, by petition without a party designation, or an equivalent no-party designation. Candidates identified with a political party do not count. Endorsements and post-election caucus affiliation do not affect the count.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-02T06:00:05.937Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The event asks how many candidates unaffiliated with a political party will be elected to U.S. House or Senate seats in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress [1]. Each market in this snapshot is a separate threshold question: whether the count will be at least 1, 2, 3, or 4 [1]. A candidate counts as unaffiliated if the relevant election authority identifies them with an Independent, Nonpartisan, No Party Preference, No Party Affiliation, Unaffiliated, or equivalent no-party designation, or if they ran by petition without a party designation [1]. Candidates identified with a political party do not count, and endorsements or post-election caucus affiliation do not affect the count [1].
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-11-02T06:00:05.937Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-11-02T06:23:32.652Z [1]. Neither time is a contract close time or a resolution. The Yes and No prices at each threshold were: at least 1, Yes 0.355 and No 0.645; at least 2, Yes 0.16 and No 0.84; at least 3, Yes 0.075 and No 0.925; at least 4, Yes 0.045 and No 0.955 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. Because the thresholds are cumulative, lower Yes prices at higher thresholds follow from the wording of the questions.
The saved market records list an end date of 2027-04-03T15:00:00.000Z for each threshold [1]. The source excerpt, however, states that the listed end time was not supplied [1]. This conflict should be noted, and the date should not be treated as a confirmed close or resolution time. The contract rules do not announce an event on that date.
All four saved markets from this single Kalshi event are included, and the sample is not marked partial [1]. Because only one platform appears, no cross-platform comparison is possible.
What remains uncertain
The sample warning states that the saved markets do not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome [1]. The four thresholds are the full saved set for this event, but they should not be read as a complete field of outcomes.
The evidence contains no volume, liquidity, or trader counts, so it cannot show how deep the market is or how many participants hold these views. It also does not explain why prices sit where they do. Final outcomes are not in the evidence, and prices may have changed since the observation time. Readers should check the provider's current listing and the contract rules before relying on any figure.
References
- Kalshi: How many independents will be elected to Congress in the midterms?. Provider data observed 2026-11-02T06:00:05.937Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 2, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract asks how many candidates who are not affiliated with a political party will be elected to the U.S. House or Senate in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress. The Kalshi event describes the market as resolving to Yes if the number of such winners is at least a stated threshold X [1]. Each threshold is a separate contract in the saved event. The saved market records cover thresholds of at least 1, at least 2, at least 3, and at least 4 [1]. The underlying election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. Wikipedia describes these as midterm elections in which all 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats will be contested, along with 39 state and territorial gubernatorial elections and other races [2]. That page was retrieved on November 2, 2026, and it describes the scheduled election rather than confirming any results. Because the elections had not yet been decided at the time of that retrieval, the contract's outcome cannot be read from this background material. The contract's wording is central to how it works. A candidate counts as unaffiliated if the relevant election authority identifies them as Independent, Nonpartisan, No Party Preference, No Party Affiliation, Unaffiliated, by petition without a party designation, or an equivalent no-party designation [1]. The rules state that candidates identified with a political party do not count, and that endorsements and post-election caucus affiliation do not affect the count [1]. A candidate who is elected without a party label but later joins or caucuses with a party therefore does not change the count under these rules. The saved market records show an end date of April 3, 2027 at 15:00 UTC for each threshold [1]. The provider's event listing states that no listed end time was supplied [1]. This end date is a contract closing date in the rules and is not an announced event date. It should not be read as the date on which the count will be known.
Historical Context
Wikipedia's account of the 2018 U.S. midterm elections describes a midterm held during Donald Trump's first term, in which all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats were contested [3]. That page reports that Democrats won control of the House in that election and that the Republican Party increased its Senate majority [3]. This history explains the midterm structure that the 2026 contract depends on, but it does not indicate how many unaffiliated candidates were elected in any past election.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a narrow count: how many winners in the 2026 U.S. House and Senate races carry a no-party designation under the stated rules [1]. Because the count is tied to official designations rather than to caucus behavior or endorsements, the contract focuses on ballot labeling as recorded by election authorities [1]. The thresholds let the market express a range of possible counts through separate contracts, each resolving on whether the count reaches its own level [1]. The current prices are snapshots from the provider and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-02 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What counts as an unaffiliated candidate under this contract?
A candidate counts if the relevant election authority identifies them as Independent, Nonpartisan, No Party Preference, No Party Affiliation, Unaffiliated, by petition without a party designation, or an equivalent no-party designation [1].
Do endorsements or caucus membership change the count?
No. The rules state that endorsements and post-election caucus affiliation do not affect the count [1].
Does a candidate listed with a party count toward the total?
No. The rules state that candidates identified with a political party do not count [1].
What does the April 3, 2027 date mean?
The saved market records list an end date of April 3, 2027 at 15:00 UTC [1]. The provider's event listing states that no end time was supplied [1], and the date is a contract closing date rather than an announced event date.
When is the underlying election?
Wikipedia states that the elections are scheduled to be held, in large part, on November 3, 2026 [2].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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