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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Which bills will become law in 2026?

Name: Which bills will become law in 2026?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$87.41K

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Markets

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Which bills will become law in 2026?

Vol

$87.41K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

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Polymarket

markets · $87.41K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $87.41K

100%

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

14 markets tracked

Will the Critical-minerals stockpile become law this year?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(14)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Critical-minerals stockpile become law this year?	Poly	61%
Will the Housing for the 21st Century Act become law this year?	Poly	57%
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?	Poly	57%
Will the SELF DRIVE Act become law this year?	Poly	52%
Will AI-chip export licensing become law this year?	Poly	49%
Will the SHOWER Act become law this year?	Poly	49%
Will the DEFIANCE Act become law this year?	Poly	48%
Will Credit-card routing competition become law this year?	Poly	48%
Will Film/TV production expensing become law this year?	Poly	39%
Will Export-control chip security become law this year?	Poly	36%
Will $2.50 Coin become law this year?	Poly	36%
Will the Smithsonian Women’s History Museum become law this year?	Poly	36%
Will Data center utility cost protection become law this year?	Poly	27%
Will Trump Airport become law this year?	Poly	10%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

61%

Top Probability

$87.41K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if X is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation includes Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire reso

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, July 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which bills will become law in 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (169 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if X is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Qualifying legislation includes

Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire reso

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that creates a federal civil lawsuit right for victims of intimate deepfakes is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Qualifying legislation in"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $87.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $26.6K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.29)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the DEFIANCE Act become law this year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $10
  DATA: [Yes: 48.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Housing for the 21st Century Act become law this year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $30.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 57.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 42.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the SELF DRIVE Act become law this year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $27
  DATA: [Yes: 51.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Film/TV production expensing become law this year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $50
  DATA: [Yes: 39.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Export-control chip security become law this year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $46
  DATA: [Yes: 36.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Data center utility cost protection become law this year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $87
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Trump Airport become law this year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $173
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will $2.50 Coin become law this year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $187
  DATA: [Yes: 36.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $53.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 57.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 43.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the Critical-minerals stockpile become law this year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 61.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 39.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the Smithsonian Women’s History Museum become law this year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 35.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Credit-card routing competition become law this year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $27
  DATA: [Yes: 47.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will AI-chip export licensing become law this year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will the SHOWER Act become law this year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $206
  DATA: [Yes: 49.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics

Which bills will become law in 2026?

Volume$87.41K

Markets14

14 of 14

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POLYMARKET

Will the Critical-minerals stockpile become law this year?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 61.0¢No 39.0¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will the Critical-minerals stockpile become law this year?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that establishes a federal critical-minerals reserve to mitigate supply disruptions is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legisla

POLYMARKET

Will the Housing for the 21st Century Act become law this year?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 57.5¢No 42.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will the Housing for the 21st Century Act become law this year?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that would revise federal housing programs to increase housing supply and affordability by expanding federal financing and grant authority for affordable housing and streamlining federal requirements that delay housing development is passed by both ch

POLYMARKET

Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 57.0¢No 43.0¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reauthorizes FISA Title VII, including Section 702, for two years is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation includes

POLYMARKET

Will the SELF DRIVE Act become law this year?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 51.5¢No 48.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will the SELF DRIVE Act become law this year?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation preempts state and local autonomous vehicle laws by establishing a unified federal regulatory framework for the testing and deployment of vehicles equipped with automated driving systems, is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress, and signed int

POLYMARKET

Will AI-chip export licensing become law this year?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 49.0¢No 51.0¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will AI-chip export licensing become law this year?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that subjects covered AI-chip exports to mandatory congressional review with a statutory blocking period is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No"

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Next Market Closes

168d 4h remaining

Dec 31, 2026 12:00 AM

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Average Yes Price

43¢

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Which bills will become law in 2026?

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Will the Critical-minerals stockpile become law this year?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Which bills will become law in 2026?

Markets (14)

Will the Critical-minerals stockpile become law this year?

Will the Critical-minerals stockpile become law this year?

Will the Housing for the 21st Century Act become law this year?

Will the Housing for the 21st Century Act become law this year?

Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?

Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?

Will the SELF DRIVE Act become law this year?

Will the SELF DRIVE Act become law this year?

Will AI-chip export licensing become law this year?

Will AI-chip export licensing become law this year?

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Discussion

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the Critical-minerals stockpile become law this year?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Which bills will become law in 2026?

Will the Critical-minerals stockpile become law this year?

Will the Critical-minerals stockpile become law this year?

Will the Housing for the 21st Century Act become law this year?

Will the Housing for the 21st Century Act become law this year?

Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?

Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?

Will the SELF DRIVE Act become law this year?

Will the SELF DRIVE Act become law this year?

Will AI-chip export licensing become law this year?

Will AI-chip export licensing become law this year?

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