GTA VI released by...?
PM $255.5K
1
2
GTA VI released by...?
PM $255.5K
1
2
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 27, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is November 30 at 96.9%.
Polymarket
- November 3096.9%
- October 31<0.1%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $255.5K
Reported volume · provider units
2
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source will be official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The saved event asks whether Grand Theft Auto VI "is officially released in the US" by a listed date [1]. The rules define release as the game "becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US," and state that "Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release" [1]. The resolution source is "official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive" [1].
Two contracts appear in the snapshot with different deadlines. The "GTA VI released by October 31?" contract has a listed end time of 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z, and the "GTA VI released by November 30?" contract has a listed end time of 2026-12-01T04:59:00.000Z [1]. The rules describe the cutoff as 11:59 PM ET on the listed date [1]. These are contract closing terms, not announced release dates.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-19T08:40:24.075Z [1]. The prices below describe that observation. They are not live quotes or verified probabilities.
The November 30 contract shows Yes at 0.978 and No at 0.022 [1]. The October 31 contract shows Yes at 0.0035 and No at 0.9965 [1]. Both contracts were listed as active at observation [1].
Because the two contracts have different close times and cover different windows, each should be read on its own terms. Their prices should not be averaged, and the difference between them is not an arbitrage signal. The evidence does not explain why either price sits where it does, so this note does not attribute any movement to a cause.
What remains uncertain
The sample includes both saved markets for this single Polymarket event. The coverage record reports two of two markets included, with no partial sample [1]. That does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome for this question.
No other platform's contracts appear in the evidence, so no cross-platform comparison is possible. The evidence also contains no information on liquidity, trading depth, or the number of traders. It does not show whether any release has occurred since the observation time. Readers should check the current contract status and official Rockstar or Take-Two information directly.
References
- Polymarket: GTA VI released by...?. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
PredictPedia tracks a Polymarket event titled "GTA VI released by...?" [1]. The event asks whether Grand Theft Auto VI will be officially released in the United States by a listed date. Its saved markets carry two deadlines, one ending October 31 and one ending November 30. Each market resolves to "Yes" or "No" based on the rules quoted in the event description [1]. The game itself is described in Wikipedia as an upcoming action-adventure game developed and published by Rockstar Games. It is due to be the eighth main entry in the Grand Theft Auto series, following 2013's Grand Theft Auto V, and the sixteenth instalment overall [2]. The same entry says it is set in the fictional state of Leonida, based on Florida, and that players will be able to roam an open world that includes the Miami-inspired Vice City [2]. These descriptions come from a Wikipedia retrieval and do not confirm a release date or any current development status. The contract's wording is narrow. A release means the game becomes publicly available for purchase or download in the United States. Early access, beta versions, other pre-release availability, and leaks do not count. A console-specific release counts if it is available for that console [1]. The resolution source is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive [1]. The listed closing times correspond to 11:59 PM Eastern Time on October 31 and November 30 in the contract rules [1]. These are deadlines written into the contract. They are not announced release dates, and the event does not say that a release has been scheduled for either date.
Historical Context
Wikipedia places Grand Theft Auto VI as the eighth main entry in the Grand Theft Auto series, following Grand Theft Auto V from 2013, and the sixteenth instalment overall [2]. A separate Wikipedia entry describes Grand Theft Auto VI: The Album as an upcoming soundtrack album for the 2026 video game [3]. The available sources do not add further history about the series or the game's development.
Why It Matters
The event measures whether the game becomes officially available in the United States by each deadline, as defined in the contract rules [1]. Because the rules exclude early access, beta access, and leaks, a public leak or limited preview would not change the outcome on its own [1]. The Yes and No prices shown for each market are snapshots of trading activity at the observation time. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities [1]. Two markets with different deadlines can show different prices because they close at different times, but the event sources do not explain the reason for any specific price difference.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What counts as an official release under this contract?
The contract says a release means the game becomes publicly available for purchase or download in the United States. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, and leaks do not count. A release on only certain consoles still counts [1].
Who determines whether the contract resolves Yes?
The resolution source is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive [1]. Rockstar Games is described as the developer and publisher of the game [2].
Why do the two markets have different end dates?
The event includes one market with a deadline of October 31 and another with a deadline of November 30 [1]. Each market closes at the listed time, which corresponds to 11:59 PM Eastern on its deadline date [1]. The deadlines do not indicate an announced release date.
Does a market price show the chance that the game will be released?
No. The prices are snapshots from the observation time, not executable quotes or verified probabilities [1]. The event does not establish that the listed markets cover every possible release timing.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Will "GTA VI: The Album" first week sales be at least 200k?
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"GTA VI" Metacritic Score?
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.